Calm Before the Storm: Humboldt Watches for Flu Surge as Respiratory Illness Dominates Statewide

Humboldt County is experiencing a calm in the spread of respiratory viruses locally, but possibly not for long. While the flu and cold season passes over California with test positivity rates approaching 28%, local levels remain low. However, Dr. Candy Stockton, Humboldt County’s Health Officer says that currently  “our wastewater levels are low but increasing.” She notes that local hospitalization rates “have not started going up yet.” 

Dr. Stockton says the region hasn’t yet seen the hospitalization spikes straining other healthcare systems across the state, but based on historical patterns and early warning signs, she expects those numbers to creep through the redwood curtain within weeks.

“Respiratory virus season across the country just started kicking off within the last few weeks and levels are still low in Humboldt County but beginning to increase,” Stockton said in an email to Redheaded Blackbelt. “Our flu levels are still low, but we have started seeing an increasing trend in the last week or so. I expect we will probably start seeing increased hospitalizations—and more people getting sick in the community—over the next two to three weeks.“

Tracking the Surge Without Case Data

Humboldt County faces a monitoring challenge that shapes how officials track respiratory viruses. Unlike some diseases, state law doesn’t require providers or labs to report most flu or Influenza, COVID-19, or RSV cases, leaving public health officials to rely on indirect measures, like monitoring wastewater samples. “We don’t track rates of respiratory illnesses because there is no requirement for providers or labs to report cases,” Stockton explained. “We do track hospitalizations and deaths, as well as monitor wastewater levels of those viruses,” she wrote, explaining that wastewater surveillance provides an accurate early warning of whatever illness is present in the local population. 

While Humboldt’s current levels remain low, Stockton says they’re beginning to climb—a pattern that typically precedes a surge by one to three weeks. The county’s hospitalization rates haven’t started rising yet, but the wastewater signal suggests that the window of good health is closing, just as families gather for the holidays.

Screenshot showing SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentrations data from “all participating surveillance sites across California” since January of 2025.

The statewide picture confirms what local monitoring hints at with the California Department of Public Health reporting that seasonal influenza activity is rising across the state, particularly in the Bay Area and Southern California. While hospitalizations remain low for now, health officials expect them to increase as the “flu season” progresses. 

Going into the last days of December, COVID-19 activity is low statewide with minimal test positivity and emergency room visits from a COVID-19 infection, while RSV activity is increasing especially among children.

National data provides additional context for the scale of what may be coming. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates at least 4.6 million flu illnesses, 49,000 hospitalizations, and 1,900 deaths across the United States so far this season. Three pediatric deaths have been confirmed nationally. 

Flu activity continues to increase across all U.S. regions, with timing similar to several past seasons. Still, the surge has not yet surged here in Humboldt County.

The Data Gap: Tracking Without Numbers

For public health officials like Humboldt County’s Health Officer Dr. Candy Stockton, monitoring the respiratory virus season means navigating significant data limitations—gaps that also leave the public in the dark about their local risk. 

While the state does track respiratory virus deaths, that data isn’t broken down by individual counties or even by the 11-county RANCHO region (Rural Association of Northern California Health Officers), which includes Humboldt and its neighboring rural counties. Last season, California recorded 2,986 COVID-19 deaths and 262 RSV deaths statewide, but specifically how many occurred in Humboldt County or across the far north remains publicly unavailable.

A screenshot from RANCHO’s interactive graph shows Hospital Admissions in the Rural North region (which covers Del Norte, Glenn, Humboldt, Lake, Lassen, Mendocino, Modoc, Shasta, Siskiyou, Tehama, and Trinity counties) currently down from a spike in September, showing the total number of recorded hospitalizations of people who needed treatment for either COVID-19, RSV, or the flu. 

Flu death data tells a clearer story, with Humboldt County reflecting nine influenza deaths during the 2024-2025 season. But for COVID-19 and RSV, county-level mortality figures aren’t publicly reported.

This lack of specific data is part of the monitoring challenge Stockton described in responding to our inquiry. Without requirements for doctors and labs to provide individual case reporting for influenza, and with limited publicly available death data for COVID-19 and RSV at the county level, public health officials must rely on wastewater surveillance, hospitalization trends, and on death certificates to understand the health trends happening in their communities. 

For the current 2025-2026 season, national data shows the flu season started earlier and more aggressively than last year. As of mid-December, the CDC estimated roughly 4.6 million flu illnesses, 49,000 hospitalizations, and 1,900 deaths nationwide—with three pediatric deaths reported so far. 

For health officials, translating those national trends to local risk remains challenging, even with the reliable and highly scientific poop-scoop measurements. Humboldt County’s wastewater shows viral activity levels are “low but increasing,” Stockton said, suggesting the region may be in the early stages of what has already hit harder elsewhere in the state.

Last Year’s Toll Shapes Current Concerns

The prospect of another wave of illness during otherwise festive times of shared community and family traditions carries particular weight given last season’s impact. “Last year was a particularly bad influenza year for us,” Stockton said. “We’re still in the relatively ‘calm’ phase,” she explained, adding, “[W]hether it becomes a ‘storm’ is partially dependent on luck and factors outside our control and partially dependent on how hard we work together to prevent disease spread in our community.”

Last year’s 2023-2024 flu season was classified as “moderately severe” by the CDC, and nationwide, the CDC estimates that season resulted in 28,000 influenza-related deaths and 470,000 flu hospitalizations. Older adults bore the brunt of severe illness, but children weren’t spared, with 205 pediatric deaths reported, and data modeling suggesting that the true toll reached 724 deaths when accounting for untested cases, according to the CDC’s 2023-2024 Influenza Season Summary released in November 2024.

Stockton was unable to provide specific death or hospitalization figures for Humboldt County’s 2023-2024 season, noting that detailed local data may not yet be compiled. 

Vaccination Rates Down Amid Misinformation

Public health officials face headwinds this season as vaccination rates decline across the country. National adult flu vaccination rates hover around 40%, with California slightly higher at 46%. Stockton said the county doesn’t yet have specific vaccination data for this season but expects local rates to fall below the state average. 

By January of 2022, the California National Guard had been deployed to assist with a vast testing program implemented across the state. Here, CA National Guard members are seen doing intake at a COVID-19 testing location which operated for months out of the Warfinger building at Eureka’s Marina. [Photo by Ryan Hutson]

This pattern of decline in vaccination rates has caused concern for health officials locally, as patients increasingly opt out of preventive vaccination in favor of natural immunity. Humboldt’s Health Officer told us that misinformation has become a barrier to better health outcomes, saying [“]Because there have been so many rumors, and so much wrong information circulating around vaccines, it’s understandable why people might feel hesitant about vaccines now,” Stockton said.

She emphasized that the science remains clear. Vaccines teach immune systems to respond to influenza, COVID-19, and RSV more quickly, helping the body fight off infection and respond faster when exposed. That advance preparation lowers the risk of serious illness or death and reduces the chances of spreading virus to others. “Vaccines are safe and very effective,” Stockton said, affirming in her capacity as a Health Officer that vaccination remains the best tool for preventing severe disease even when circulating strains don’t perfectly match vaccine formulations.

The state continues to recommend vaccination for all eligible individuals, particularly those at higher risk of complications, but California data shows only a small percentage of eligible residents have received recommended respiratory virus vaccines this season. The California Department of Public Health continues to ask residents to vaccinate, with the website currently advising, “CDPH continues to recommend influenza vaccination for protection, especially against severe disease, along with testing, and timely treatment.​

Healthcare System Already Under Pressure

The holiday season complicated by any illness can be an even greater challenge for many people with pre-existing health concerns, when community spread of disease begins to pick up.  The timing of the respiratory virus season compounds existing reliance on Humboldt County’s limited healthcare infrastructure, with local emergency rooms often being saddled with the burden brought by a viral surge. 

In August of 2021, Providence St. Joseph in Eureka was struggling with the an overwhelming COVID-19 caseload, and had to quickly modify rooms to include ventilation systems in the each room, in order to safeguard staff and patients from the highly virulent airborne virus – an emergency modification that to comply with PPE requirements and isolate the patient. [Photo by Ryan Hutson]

Dr. Stockton pointed out that even modest increases in emergency department visits can quickly overwhelm the county’s capacity to handle other emergencies and acute conditions. 

“It doesn’t take very many extra people going into the emergency room before it starts actually blocking our ability to care for other diseases and emergencies that come in,” Stockton said, acknowledging that Humboldt County’s local healthcare system operates with thin margins under normal circumstances, leaving little buffer when respiratory illnesses surge.

Stockton noted that the holiday period brings not just respiratory illnesses but increased risks related to mental health conditions, substance use disorders, and cardiovascular disease. “Because of our limited health care resources in Humboldt County, there is always a concern about capacity when we see an increase in visits,” Stockton said. “Doing what you can to help prevent the spread of respiratory viruses can really help our health care system.“

Window for Prevention Closing

Dr. Stockton stressed that residents still have time to take protective measures before the anticipated surge arrives, but that window is narrow. The county likely won’t detect a surge in cases until one to two weeks after it begins, based on the lag in hospitalization reporting. “Now is a good time to start taking steps to protect yourself and your family, especially if you or a loved one has a high risk of complications,” she said.

At the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccines were in short supply as the virus overtook hospitals and communities. At SoHum Health in Garberville, a young man receives his first dose of the vaccine against the novel coronavirus, in March of 2021. [Photo by Ryan Hutson]

For those concerned about avoiding illness, Stockton advised wearing masks in crowded indoor gatherings and during air travel—locations where close contact with infected people is likely even before they develop symptoms. Basic prevention measures remain effective, Stockton said. Staying home when sick, wearing a mask if going out in public while symptomatic, and good handwashing can slow or prevent the spread of common respiratory infections. Covering one’s face with the inner elbow for a sneeze, and simply keeping some distance in public spaces are effective in limiting shared germs. Those precautions matter even for people not at high risk themselves, she noted, since missing work, school, and social gatherings due to illness can disrupt daily life.

For Communities across the Emerald Counties and other RANCHO regions, Dr. Stockton and her team at DHHS included, the lack of specific vaccination and infection data doesn’t just complicate public health messaging—it makes it harder for residents to assess their own risk and make informed decisions about vaccination, gathering, and other protective measures during the winter respiratory virus season.

“While we can’t say with certainty what the season will look like overall, we are hoping that COVID-19 rates remain reasonably low because we had a late summer surge in COVID cases,” Stockton said.

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