Energy Expert: ‘A Lot of Uncertainty’ With Humboldt Offshore Wind Energy

Arne Jacobson of the Schatz Energy Research Center

A leading local energy researcher has described Humboldt’s offshore wind energy projects as being in a “waiting game” while political and economic changes play out.

The history and future of Humboldt County energy development was the topic of a Dec. 3 presentation from Arne Jacobson of the Schatz Energy Research Center at Cal Poly Humboldt.

In an online meeting of the Community Economic Resilience Consortium, Jacobson’s presentation showed how the evolution of Humboldt’s energy development accelerated in the two decades following World War II but has remained static since.

The first major expansion of the county’s energy infrastructure since the mid-1960s is on the drawing board, however, as wind energy projects are slated for two areas offshore of Eureka.

Jacobson said the California Independent System Operator, a public benefit corporation that operates the state’s energy grid, has approved the major expansion of Humboldt’s transmission system needed to accommodate new wind energy.

The timeline for completion of the transmission upgrade is late 2034 but “all of that could shift and could end up being a bit later,” Jacobson continued.

That’s because momentum on offshore wind energy is frozen.

A pace for it was set in 2022, when the administration of President Joe Biden announced a goal of developing 30 gigawatts of offshore wind energy by 2030.

A tailwind on meeting the goal died down in 2025, when President Donald Trump regained office.

His executive orders included ordering “temporary cessation and immediate review” of offshore wind leasing and permitting.

Then came the financial hits, with a $427 million federal port development grant to the Humboldt Bay Harbor District reeled back.

A few months later, the two global companies that paid a combined $331 million for Humboldt’s offshore wind energy development leases announced layoffs, with one of them laying off about 100 workers.

The turnabout is a major disappointment.

Jacobson said the county transmission upgrade would “increase electrical capacity, improve reliability in the Humboldt Bay region and provide a foundation for economic development.”

Paid for by ratepayers statewide, the upgrade would create “more than enough capacity to meet our local loads” if the Humboldt Bay Generating Station were to go offline, he continued.

Wide-ranging support is needed because the project will face some complex logistical challenges, including securing rights-of-ways and mitigating impacts.

“These kinds of projects are never easy and always have impacts, so that is also part of the story,” said Jacobson. “The development was approved but it’s not guaranteed at this point.”

He added, “permitting a right-of-way is hard and the federal opposition to offshore wind creates a lot of uncertainty, so it’s possible that it will not proceed but it’s also possible that it will, and that’s roughly where we sit today.”

The meeting’s host, Gregg Foster of the Redwood Region Economic Development Commission, asked if Humboldt is “in a chicken and egg situation” between infrastructure expansion and willingness of the wind energy industry to proceed with projects.

Jacobson described wind energy development as “an interactive circumstance” between supportive infrastructure, offshore wind developers interested in proceeding with projects and, since the projects are in federal waters, the federal government.

California is all in on wind energy but can’t make it happen alone.

“You can think of the federal government, the state and the private sector as three legs of a stool and if one of those legs goes out, it’s hard to make it proceed,” Jacobson said.

Investments are limited now but none of the non-federal players are backing out because offshore wind “could be ready to move forward if things will look more favorable in a few years,” he continued.

But there’s a limit to how long the wait can last.

“The question is can the things that have been approved or that are lined up stay lined up without having too much expenditure waiting for a more favorable situation,” said Jacobson. “At a certain point people end up saying, ‘I can’t put more money into this,’ or ‘I can’t put more effort into this,’ and so it’s certainly not guaranteed that people can wait forever where they’ve made some preliminary investments.”

“So it sounds like our next big signal will be the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November 2026,” said Foster. “And we’ll see how the midterms go and we’ll know what federal policy may or may not be at that point.”

He added, “Who knows? Nothing like uncertainty to chill investment.”