Humboldt Featured in Sac Bee Story: ‘California’s rural hospitals can’t handle a coronavirus wave. ‘People will die,’ doctor warns’
“People. Will. Die.,” says Dr. Craig Burrows in the video above in which he explains why social distancing is important and perhaps particularly important in small, rural communities. “Try to imagine 100 people getting sick all at once tomorrow…If that happens, our small hospital, our small community, will be completely overwhelmed and people will die. Let me say that again: People. Will. Die.”
Today, an article in the Sacramento Bee expands on Dr. Burrows concerns and uses Humboldt County to do so.
“Scattered across the vast rural areas of the state, often hours from major cities or the midsize towns that serve as rural “medical hubs,” these small facilities inhabit the quietest corners of the state,” the article notes.
The piece quotes Supervisor Rex Bohn pointing out the “bleak numbers” in Humboldt County. He says we have only 250 hospital beds in total across the County and of those only 22 are ICU beds (a graphic in the article showing capacity by county indicates that there are 26 adult ICU beds) He said the County is trying to prepare by renting motel rooms for non critical patients.
Another concern the article points out: “An outbreak in a rural community also could quickly cripple emergency medical ambulance and patient transportation services that would transfer critical patients to larger facilities with more resources.” With resources stretched thin, a few sick first responders could cripple medical transportation, the article points out.
According to the article, every ICU bed has a ventilator (ventilators are critical medical tools in this pandemic as they breathe for patients who are struggling to draw in air–a symptom of this disease), but if there are more patients than beds, then there won’t be enough ventilators even if more beds are cobbled together.
The Sac Bee article has interactive tables and graphics showing ICU beds by County and goes into depth about a number of issues facing rural communities as COVID-19 cases rise across the state-1249 confirmed cases as of this morning. Three weeks ago on the last day of February, the state had 11 confirmed cases.
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Our system is always overloaded without this trump virus
Our system is overloaded with silly comments!!!!
Martin, i agree! Blaming this carastrophe on an alzheimers patient is completely silly.
Its the #MoscowMitch virus. He set us up for this catastrophe when he allowed a criminally racist, narcissistic alzheimers patient to stay in the white house.
Awww, the three year impeachment gambit fell flat. Don’t worry, come November we’ll have an opportunity to put another Alzheimer’s patient in the White House. Joy!
Dan, sadly he’s right. Putting Biden in the white house is a complete disaster. The DNC has put us in another no win election. That is a large part of what has me completely enraged and hopeless. Biden has abetter soul than trump, but his brain is just as liquified. We are in a terrible place.
3eye is wrong about the impeachement. If moscowmitch wasnt conspiring to sell out our country and had let everyone see the evidence he woukd have been removed from office. Dont let their games fool you 3eye. It will cost you more than it already has.
Judge after republican nominated judge is calling it out. Read the court news for facts.
Get Biden in.
Assume his VP can help and takeover if need be.
Trump already created America’s downfall, and I mean permanently as of now.
It can get worse.
Get Biden in.
“The media, in my view, and I feel very strongly about this, is not the enemy of the people. We need a free media,” he said, according to the Daily Record.
Former Chief of Staff John Kelly continued: “That said, you have to be careful about what you are watching and reading, because the media has taken sides. So if you only watch Fox News, because it’s reinforcing what you believe, you are not an informed citizen.”
Same thing for MSNBC, CNN, the New York Times, the Washington Post…..
Few of whom can seem to set their agenda aside even a short time for the public good. They complain about Trump’s grandiose self assessments while failing to notice their own.
I was starting to worry since you didn’t post yesterday. Glad you are okay!
Thank you for noticing. Even if that entails eye rolling about being back. Too much self induced stress. I needed a break from my Quixotic campaign over Trump bashing.
I was genuinely relieved to see your comment. I’m glad you are okay.
As much as we argue, I would not wish you ill.
Ernestine…Joe Biden is no longer in the white house so don’t you worry anymore…problem solved!
Well of course, we all know that Pence is a genius.
May we all have someone that gazes at us with utter adoration the way Pence gazes at Trump.😍😍😍😍😍😍
(It’s a hilarious side show at the Trump briefings “
“But my guy has slightly less dementia” that’s the slogan for 2020. You see red, they see blue, I just rub my forehead in disgust.
Can I buy you a beer when this all goes away? Totally agree.
I’ve stated many times that I have no favorites and i generally don’t like politicians, blue or red.
But Trump is a special kind of malignancy so he gets my attention a lot. I rail against him because he’s such a despicable human, not because he’s a Republican.
Why is it the Trump virus?
Because he ignored the intelligence provided to him and did not act swiftly to protect us. I’m so tired of all this winning.
[edit]
ignored intelligence? wow…is shutting down air travel ignoring it.?? is locking the nation down for 15 days ignoring it?? banning national air travel ignoring it??…[edit]
Dear tired, I guess the 6 months that Obama took is more to your liking…get a grip.
EVERYTHING is Trumps fault, you didn’t get the memo provided by the left owned propaganda machine?
Or, if you inhabit MAGA world, the Chinese’s fault. And if there were some plausible way, someone would blame Putin.
Hey, let’s just repeat the old and dusty it’s Obamas fault.
How is this President Trump’s virus?
I really pray that the people of Humboldt County will take this most serious issue to heart, and follow all the recommended rules for staying healthy. As we know, this virus is a killer, and it will continue to do so for sometime to come in the near future. Please be safe people your life may depend on it, along with others.
So far I think most Humboltians? (sp) are responding with common sense and responsibility. Its sad to see the shelves empty because of the greedy ones, but overall I think we are doing well. The equation is simple; sacrifice a bunch to keep many from having to sacrifice their lives. No one wants to make that choice, but here we are. Generations before us had to do it, and they survived.
Agree with Martin and all the other voices of reason. This is not a political issue; this is a matter of public health.
🇺🇸Willie sends his thanks for the common sense remark Sparklemahn. 🇺🇸
Katherine, are you typing for Willie? I wondered where he was, after I hadn’t seen his posts. If so, that’s very kind of you. Please send along my best wishes.
This is a matter of nature taking its course against the weak and the diseased. This is a matter of Darwinism. Saving humans at the cost of humans is asinine.
Taking it very serious!!
Now is not the time for that comment. We must all come together to beat this, our children are counting on us.
Well, i feel you, but no. If this wasnt going to cost millions of Americans everything…death, joblessness, homelessness, and things we cant yet imagine, we could just play nice and let by gones go by.
As it is, we have to look where it came from because the orange bastard is lying his face off. Saying that china didnt tell us.
If he would shut up and sit down and let the professionals do their jobs, then that would be one thing, but hes making things worse and not ordering the manufacturing of medical supplies while offering us 1000$ checks based on printed money thats going to skyrocket inflation enabling the rich to buy every goddamned asset we are forced into bankruptcy on. But pat neighbors tells you your money is safest in a digital account. Right. But i suggest you buy something of tangible value.
Yea im not going to be nice until the lying stops.
If #MoscowMitch gave a turd about any of us, he and Lindsay would have been in Trump’s office the minute john kelly spoke up….They would have been telling trump “sit down shut up or face the 25th amendment you crazy fool.” But no, they protected themselves and sacraficed an entire nation.
don’t waste time talking about you know who when h’s already wasting way too much of our time.lets focus on supporting sensible ways of dealing with this reality
I don’t think you heard the beginning of the John Kelly exchange. It was edited with the deliberate intent to reframe the exchange, paint Kelly in a better light, and to manufacture the very reaction you are espousing. A lie by omission is still a lie.
I hope you can find some peace and I wish you a long and prosperous life.
For those that want to learn and dont know who the liars are https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/feb/13/ex-white-house-chief-staff-john-kelly-speaks-out-against-trump
However if he had right away at the very first sign of something wrong banned all travel to or from China the left would be screaming racist . And quoting the WHO, when they said don’t worry this doesn’t seem to be able to spread from one person to the next. Your hatred has blinded your common sense
Well no one would ha e said he was being racist if he had order a cargo ship of masks, ventilators, face shields and test kits.
But he didnt do that.
Yes. He could have done what no one else did. The briefings that Anti Trumpets have now latched onto as their latest example of their personal bete noir, probably did cause him to look into what the Chinese were doing to stop the virus and obviously he thought that closing the borders to people from infected areas would allow the government to contain the contagion. That would have been a typical Trump over confidence. It would not have occurred to him that people from other places who were already infected by contact with the Chinese, would have mild symptoms and be free to spread it around under the radar. That factor- that this disease caused little misery in most people while causing catastrophic illness in the minority- was probably not something he was warned about as it seems to have caught everyone who had not had SARS and MERS experience by surprise. Warning that covid-19 could spread is not the same thing as warning about its previously unheard of way of doing it. Trump obviously talked with the Chinese leaders, who reported affirmed it was under control. He bought it, did what he thought would work and moved on. He was wrong but not alone in being wrong as is shown by the European covid-19 status.
Those who focus everything (note that is the operative word- everything) on blaming Trump are even more impaired. Trump’s defects are very much come from a desire to believe in solutions, the easier the better. Anti Trumpets are much more defective as they believe in only the very easiest solution- kill the messenger. The complete Anti Trumpet comes with a host of fantasies equally inane. They believe if they only object to reality about drug addiction, poverty, greed, etc , some one (not them of course) will fix reality to be what they want. Trump, for all his defects, knows that fixing problems requires fixing what causes the problems and works on that first. The worst delusion the Anti Trumpets have is that they know better even as Monday morning quarterbacks. They tend to misunderstand everything even after it has happened.
So why do you politicize this? This disease came from the Chinese mainland and way spread by the Chinese government intentionally! Place the blame where the blame is due. I suppose your one of those individuals that wants open borders also? If that is the case then you care nothing about your country or your countrymen!
Prove that the Chinese spread it intentionally.
[edit]
China was hit first, and they didnt know what it was. When they learned, they acted. Unlike the white men at the top of your government. All theyve done is to wait for the economy to collapse so they can cash in on your misfortune.
And begin the lies that its chinas fault your government didnt protect you.
Weirdly oblivious remarks- that racists attacks can possibly result in a better government by attacking racists based on their race. Chinese is a government adjective, not a race. There is no “China” race. A big fault in your remarks is believing that government can somehow superior in understanding to its citizens. Another is that you’re any better. Disagreeing with an overly simplistic nasty interpretation by being even more simplistic and nasty only shows a greater misunderstanding.
Or you’re a humbot operating in the service of a Chinese propaganda machine attempting to scrape off the outrage of their own citizenry over their government’s own behavior onto Americans. The Chinese government is big on their idea that Americans are so easily baited into self destructive spewing at each other that it undermines any criticism of China. I think they are right.
This is a global world
There is not blaming anyone for having the virus
The blame lies with countries not working together
It is so patently obvious we are all in this together
We Americans buy 90% of our goods from China
Stop blaming them
Look at our government and our inability to take care of our own
Our for profit insurance industry has prevented our hospitals from flourishing
Lousy reimbursement to Drs and hospitals has decimated the medical system for years
The good thing about all this is that things will change
Can’t continue at our pace
Congress will have to get off the welfare dole and become part of us
Then we will prosper..
At least a whole lot better than now
Marigold…our children are counting on a planet not infected by 16 billion humans living in filth and pollution with all there natural resources for human survival depleted.Depopulation is the cure.
But singularly hard on the population being depopulated.
If calling it the Chinese virus is inappropriate, calling it the trump virus is just spiteful.
It’s not the trump virus, trump is his own trump virus destroying America.
How long has Tom Allman tried to get people to support him with the mental health issues in this county ( Mendocino ) ?
Tom couldn’t even get beds for that!
Just one indication of misapplication of resources, by the whole State.
Did Sacramento come to help Tom? Did the Board of Sups help him?
How long has Trump pleaded with California to get the homeless off the streets. Amazing, suddenly we are finding solutions we just couldn’t fine before.
No one cared until they couldn’t get their own personal test for a dangerous virus .
California’s been more interested in Botox, Breast implants, Sexual orientation, PC issues, and impeaching Trump than taking care of real business.
You laugh while Kathy Griffin holds a bloody Trump head and Madonna threatens to blow up the White House and then whine that Trump hasn’t saved you.
Now you want to blame him for your choices.
Never the less each day is a new day to change the way we do things.
Start by looking at yourself.
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Yah sure, crooked Hillary should be in charge.
I’m no Hillary fan but I doubt she would have flubbed this like Trump has.
Always with the false equivalencies.
Don’t you get tired of running interference and attempting damage control? Don’t you ever wish Trump would just shut the hell up so you could catch a break ??????????
Puppets,
Vs the Puppet Masters.
YS,
Who do you think you’re kidding? If he shut up you would complain about that too!
Do you have anything useful or helpful hiding anywhere in your brain?
Trump gets what he gives. Period. End of story.
Quit acting as if he is the Emperor and is exempt from criticism and observation. Do you have nothing to do but to run to his aid every time someone slights him?
He’s not Caligula, although I think he wishes he was. It’s a shame that modern restraints keep him somewhat in check.
You run to his aid and defense like he’s a delicate flower. A man to be coddled and protected.
Get real and get used to it.
.
And you act like a spoiled child that expects him to come give you your bottle or you’ll cry till he does.
Grow up.
That’s all you got???? Jesus, I’m arguing with a 12 year old.
Kym, please leave this up. Everyone should see this.
You are non essential and part of the problem you complain about. Most rational adults know when enough is enough.
Do you have anything to add to an already divided community dealing with the fall out of this?
No.
You are looking for someone to hang, like lynch mobs of our past.
I see non essential communication that should be shut down.
Try turning off your need to consume every talking point from the media.
It’s been weaponized, and everything is adding fuel to the fire.
Funny you are only addressing me with this suggestion and uh no, not going to pretend that Trump is wonderful. Never, ever. Trump has an essential role in “this conversation “, you’re not making sense but you ARE, trying to shut me down. Not happening…
I’m suggesting we all take a good look at y/our intentions and what you think you/we are achieving with this non stop hate train.
With all due respect, you are a polarizing voice when unity is needed.
It’s always about the reality check.
Truth can be a dish best served ….directly.
If you want to argue ideas, do so. Don’t attack other posters (particularly by singling one out or I’ll ban you.)
Yes, I do wish Trump would shut up. Because he could realize, as experienced politicians do, that as so many focus on noise when they attack, complexities being too hard to handle. People want to have their fantasies unchallenged. They want lipstick on their pigs. Unfortunately the things that make Trump useful- dogged persistence in working towards a goal- also is inseparable from his awkward communication. I think he’s autistic myself. But that doesn’t make him wrong. Nor does it make those who despise him right. Quite the opposite- they never notice anything other than the lipstick, complain about lipstick, think the world revolves around lipstick and it never occurs to them that a pig without lipstick is a useful, intelligent animal.
I’ve seen some good behavior and kind people. But I’ve also seen some terribly selfish and careless behavior around here! Bars that were open on St Patricks Day?!!! WTF?! The virus IS here. We don’t have “official” cases because there have been no “official” test kits available. It is moving through our community being passed along by people who have no symptoms and selfish people who believe they are not in an at-risk group. I see who they are and I want nothing to do with them- now especially but also after this is over. They would have you die so that they won’t be inconvenienced. It’s like they are all a bunch of Marcy Burstiners- the lowest level of morality. Please be safe and steer clear of these vector-idiots! Call them out- some are perhaps simply ignorant. But some really do not care- they are terrible humans making lame excuses for exposing all of us.
Yes, people will die. It is unfortunate, but there it is. Shelter in place and/or take other measures if you desire staying healthy. Ignore the recommendations if you don’t believe this outbreak is true, but remember to hold your tongue if/when you get sick. Also, keep in mind your family/friends reaction may not be benevolent towards you if/when they get sick.
Maybe the Bee article has a point. St. Joseph’s Hospital is the last place I would want to end up. The staff is always unhappy, striking about this and that. They say it’s for “patient care and safety,” but it’s all about money. The patient care I have been around, both personal and family has been terrible. They cause more harm than good mostly. Administration says they don’t have the money to increase staffing and upgrade patient care, yet they constantly donate thousands of dollars to outside causes.
Maybe it’s time for administration and staff to get back to the actual reason they exist and that is patient care. If any of them can’t see this it’s time to get into another line of work that doesn’t involve people’s lives. If they can’t, the virus, should it get worse, will be far more dangerous.
We here in Crescent city are in an even worst predicament with medical care.
People can point blame at whomever they wish but at the end of the day we all need to stick together and have compassion for those around us.
I would love to volunteer to something like this but I have not seen any such need put out by our community yet.
I see alot of post regarding people not taking this seriously and it is concerning. I work in a facility here in CC and we currently have a staff member who has been shopping all over Grantspass and Medford and everywhere between, with little to no regard of the people she works with that have elderly or compromised family they take care of.
Please please feel how you want about this virus but have compassion for those around you. Smile, be kind, offer assistance where you can. Do not hoard, share with your neighbors and unite. We can and will pull through these tough times!
Stay safe wherever you are ❤
Shut down the airport now. Close the highways, and don’t let anyone into the county that is not a resident, or delivering essential supplies. Returning resident travelers should be in mandatory quarantine at home. Read this:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-cruise-ship-costa-luminosa.html
(say like Texas cowboys in Pace Picante Salsa commercial) “NEW YAWK”?!?!
Damn everyone playing scared to get that FED MONEY.
It’s too late for that and it was never a legal possibility anyway. The virus is here.
Mr knows everything says
Swine, if you want to debate Eric’s ideas, that’s admirable. Insulting anyone is against the rules.
Returning resident travelers should be in mandatory quarantine at home. They are. A friend just got back from Europe and the local health dept told her to quarantine for 14 days, and she is.
We cant just shut everything down unfortunately. Plus the virus is obviously in county already since someone just tested positive and a high percentage of us are most likely already carrying it.
Everywhere ive been in Humboldt has been business as usual, besides empty shelves.
Yesterday at grocery store they were restocking and the aisles are narrow enough that you cant pass another person and keep 6 feet away. I came within 6inches of lots of workers and people, can’t shop without getting that close.
Its here and people will die. For our area its gonna depend on how fast it hits, ie whether its spread out over time or happens all at once.
In Italy the doctors are having to make the horrible decision of who to treat and who to let die as theres not enough equipment to help everyone. The Italian medical board said next step will be an age limit, if you come in sick over a certain age you dont get treatment. Thats triage. That could be us.
Any of us could be responsible for someone old being left to slowly suffocate as their lungs fill with liquid and relatives cannot be near so the person dies alone.
The posts frim Italian doctors talking about being with patients as they phone relatives to say they’re dying and this is last goodbye are heartbreaking.
We will be Italy soon. Cases just doubled in a day in Sonoma.
We won’t be Italy. Italy is part of China’s OBOR (One Belt One Road). Italy has a large population of (both legal and undocumented) Chinese immigrants living in the country. These immigrants were invited in to preserve the competitiveness of Italy’s textile industries. Entire towns exist where Chinese have completely displaced the native Italians. China operates several Italian ports. PRC police operate independently in these China-dominated towns within Italy.
Tour groups from Wuhan were still coming into Italy as recently as a few weeks ago.
The rate of Cov-19 spread in America is not now nor will be as high as it is in Italy. We won’t be Italy.
Without tests, how do you substantiate your statement, “Plus the virus is obviously in county already since someone just tested positive and a high percentage of us are most likely already carrying it.”?
It is 100% speculation!
Stick to facts!
Coronavirus has infected 886 people/1 million in Italy. As of right now we have 82 people/1 million infected. Our rate will not be nearly as bad as italy’s, or Spain. Shoot we are about to hear about Switzerland being fucked, 874 cases/ 1 million people. Do the math, quit looking at big numbers, break the figures down for yourselves.
If the Chinese didn’t eat bats, snakes and anteaters, we wouldn’t have these viruses. If we made things in the us instead of china, the virus wouldn’t be carried over here with commerce. Blaming Trump is pure ignorance. Relying on government for your every need is also ignorance. Many of these comments are made by people who chose a counterculture lifestyle,hate government and dont contribute their fair share to the system. Its amusing that they are the biggest whiners. Butch up, as the world gets more and more crowded with humans, these problems will get worse over time irregardless of who is in the White House. You can’t honestly think Hilary, Obama,Bernie or Biden would do any better. Just take a look at the swine flu or Benghazi and the answer is readily apparent. Just be happy you live here and not in a metropolitan nightmare.
bwahahaha, finally someone came out with the Chinese eating weird food diversion. It was inevitable, it’s on the list of talking points to protect trump. Talking points also covered in your rant,,,, Hippies, tax evaders and expecting the government to act right is dumb.
Epidemiological reports from the CDC suggest this was transmitted from bats to humans, the place was a large live-animal and seafood market in Wuhan also known as a “wet” market. Its not a diversion, its the truth, they may not have eaten the bat, but they were certainly keeping enough dirty wild animals in close enough proximity for this virus to make the jump. This is the second version of SARS to come out of that area in less than 20 years, the first was from people keeping animals in their homes with them. Yes there should absolutely be pressure on China to clean up their act or this will keep happening, doesn’t matter who the president is, was, or will be. Your outright hatred is disgusting.
Wrong. The origins of the virus have been traced to bats and pangolins, but that does not mean that they were the vector of transfer to humans.
https://consortiumnews.com/2020/03/20/covid-19-genome-analysis-suggests-2-viruses-may-have-combined/
You are right, the WHO says they believe it came from a bat reservoir while another species could’ve been the intermediate host for the virus to make the jump. However, you are trying to discredit my entire statement with something that really doesn’t pertain. Fact is, from,the WHO, it did come from the Huanan Market in Wuhan. My statement stands, you only strengthened it.
Everyone who shoots a deer, duck, or goose and eats it is eating a “dirty wild animal.” So is anyone who eats wild-caught seafood.
Your assumption that the Huanan Market was selling “dirty wild animals” is unwarranted. In fact it is highly unlikely. Wuhan is not some village where people scrounge wild food to sell. It is a city with millions of people who live in shiny residential towers and buy farmed food. It is most likely that the infection was transferred to livestock by wildlife.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200210144854.htm
“The researchers note that disrupting bat habitat appears to stress the animals and makes them shed even more virus in their saliva, urine and feces that can infect other animals.”
Bats pee when they fly around.
Great Leader directive icu812
Citizens
Commencing April 15th citizens may resume calling Covid19 by its other name————-a cold.
More later on The Great Leader mandatory podcast.
Citizens——–do the funky chicken
Citizens——–do the jerk
The differences between COVID-19 and common viruses have been explained to you already. Put your money where your mouth is and start eating used kleenex.
“ oh you don’t think covid is as deadly as they say it is ? Start eating boogers off of tissues then !!!! “
Lol
Happy to brighten your day.
The president can’t stop being a narcissist ..Americans In rural areas have real life problems like lack of icu beds. crisis requires competent leadership ,we have none .
Narcissistic personality disorder — one of several types of personality disorders — is a mental condition in which people have an inflated sense of their own importance, a deep need for excessive attention and admiration, troubled relationships, and a lack of empathy for others.
You say this with fervent confidence, yet you fail to cite any examples with which to convince us that what you say is true. I am unswayed by your ad hominem attacks against our President.
President*
What has he done? And I mean what has he done, not what he says he’s done.
He’s done more for the rich and corporations than for anyone.
The economy? Riding on Obamas coat tails. The stock market? Doesn’t reflect the millions and millions of Americans one paycheck away from disaster.
Oh hey, love that new national debt and if he has his way he’ll scut back Social Security, Medicare and any other safety net he can because he’s a dick like that.
So let’s hear TRUTHFULLY what he’s accomplished for “Americans”
For one thing he stopped incoming flights from 10 Chinese cities back in January, due to the COVID-19 contagion. The D’s and the Media called him racist for that. How much worse might our situation be had he failed to take action?
Now they are pushing the narrative that he ignored intelligence and did nothing at all. Perhaps you prefer that canard so you can avoid confronting uncomfortable truths? If so, I understand. My own process of disillusion was prolonged, painful, and lonely—I was devoid of any support from friends and family, most of whom continue to think as you do. But even as I was once no different than you (I’m an old hippie liberal who voted for Clinton 2x and Obama 2x), I have hope that you can be as I am: Free of the pain and confusion borne of illusion.
A PARABLE
Once there was a community of people who lived a simple life. Until, that is, one of their member started laughing—he claimed he saw through the illusions of life—and broke through to an ineffable joy. This troubled the others, who were confused by this perspective and perturbed by the constant sounds of laughter. Eventually one other joined the outcast in his perceptions and the laughter grew. Soon, more joined in and the laughter grew louder and more joyful. This caused the community leaders no small amount of consternation. They huddled and discussed their predicament. One of them produced a potion which would solve their problem. They forcibly injected the potion into those overcome with joy. The laughter stopped, replaced by constant screaming. The community leaders considered this to be an improvement.
You cited ONE thing then launched off into a total word salad. Whatever…
One example was enough. You can find more on your own. And I don’t think you know what ‘word salad’ means.
Peace.
You call him a racists for stopping flights and then call him inept for not stopping more flights. Even newsom is trying to work productively with him, but here we sit listening to you.
Scrolling by is always an option when one commenter gets on your nerves.
“Apathy is the glove into which evil slips it’s hand” if there was someone in here spewing far right propaganda it wouldn’t be tolerated very well. Not directed at you, just in general.
If Yeah, Sure counts as far left, several commenters here count as far right…
Im going to let this one go in the interest of what’s going on. Maybe you should suggest the same to some of the people who dont lean left.
?
Hermit, the Grizzly truth is this;
Trump started his travel ban on Jan 31.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019–20_coronavirus_pandemic_in_November_2019_–_January_2020
A full month after Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, Hong Kong and Macau started health screenings and incoming scrutinies.
Trump was almost last to enact a ban in the developed world.
And it wasn’t enacted until Feb 2nd.
Thanks for that. It sure shut ole grizzly up
Not so fast, young Kanye-spawn! This Herm is the gift which keeps on giving.
Peace!
Thank you for confirming my original point. What do you suppose people in the rest of the “developed world” thought about the American media and Democrats as they were criticizing Trump for his “racist” travel ban, considering they had already done the same?
P.S. Isn’t Wikipedia (for all it’s faults) wonderful? I really admire Jimmy Wales for his egalitarian dedication to providing a free encyclopedia service, despite all the temptations to commercialize it.
You must be talking about one Democrat, namely Joe Biden.
Joe was right to be concerned about Trumps xenophobia in general, but was not calling Trump a racist.
Joe was not privy to the information that Trump was, and surely had he been, would likely have taken it seriously before just last week.
But Trump was late to the party, nothing can change that.
So no, none of your points are “proven”.
Yes, Biden said at the Feb 02 DNC debate that Trump’s Travel Ban was “xenophobic”, prompting widespread media criticism of the President’s action. A few weeks later, the media moved the goalposts and pushed the narrative shaming POTUS for “doing nothing” (which is what Yeah, Sure was arguing, above). Pick a lane, people!
Peace.
If you have such high standards for picking lanes, where is Obama’s Kenyan birth certificate Trump’s lawyers had “proof” of?
Why don’t you explain why we don’t 1.5 million tests 2 weeks ago?
Why aren’t we at 0 cases?
Why and when did….oh fuck it.
[edit]
You lost that one. That’s why you resorted to snark. Valid criticism of Trump’s response gets overwhelmed by Trump Derangement Syndrome (your affliction) all too often. Those who promoted the “xenophobia” trope are as guilty as Trump of playing politics with the pandemic and showed disregard for its health consequences.
We are not supposed to criticize Trump. Period. We are supposed to tell ourselves we don’t see or hear what we do. We are supposed to look at him as a poor man who is a poor victim of poor losers. We must ignore every fuck up and immature outburst because he is the President . We must bow to his presidency as if we’re in North Korea. The media must be silenced like we are in North Korea. Dear leader cannot take criticism and neither can his cult.
It’s not a syndrome or deranged to criticize a President.
Especially if they have a poor record or performance.
It’s a syndrome to not admit fault.
And I don’t get snarky for losing. I go inward.
I get snarky because I take on a load of bullshit around here.
You and I have our own history.
I’m just glad you’re seeing the current crisis for what it is.
Not much else matters at this point.
Being irrational and obsessed about most things is the problem. Claiming that objecting to the irrational and obsessive is being irrational and obsessive itself is just more irrationality and obsession.
No one would spend much time objecting to criticizing Trump if it was not done in such an over the top obsessive and irrational way.
Trump was the last to “ban”? Why was he hammered for being a racist, and over reacting by our media? USA was one of the first, despite WHO recommendations not to. There is a huge difference between screenings and bans. Taiwan reported early that $hit was going to hit the fan but since WHO can’t recognize Taiwan as a legit country and keep getting cash from China, they kept it to themselves and disregarded the early warning.
WHO should be crucified for screwing this up. It’s their whole purpose to investigate, monitor, warn and advise the world. Thats what they get paid for, and they blew it.
You obviously studied the timeline very well.
I’m almost surprised you can spell “USA”.
If people could duel before they commented, there would be much less written here.
The meek, not the weak,
Comfort zone is a horrible place to type.
Brian, If you want to argue ideas, do. Please don’t waste everyone’s time by just slinging an insult.
🤬
I’ll try to maintain composure.
They are attempting to silence us because we are going against the cult and it’s leader.
YS- that’s what “they” say about your “us.” Could be that there are more than one cult fighting for the same territory.
@guest
Two cults. You nailed it.
The thing is, WHO was acting before the US.
They were monitoring and warning.
And if you had read the timeline, you would not have been able to make that comment.
Trump initiated screening of people coming from central China on 1/17/20. Other countries in Asia had started such screening earlier because of the volume of traffic with Chinese nationals traveling to China for the Chinese New Year, which is not an issue in the US. And they had already had cases of the disease.
There is no entry for Jan 17th screenings by US;
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019–20_coronavirus_pandemic_in_November_2019_–_January_2020
Please give a link so I can be accurate.
Yes, the proximity and high travel rates are even more testament to the success of those places and their early common sense policies.
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/478866-us-airports-begin-screening-passengers-for “Three major airports in the United States are now screening passengers coming from Wuhan, China, for a new virus that has killed two people and sickened at least 45, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced Friday.
It is not yet clear if the disease, a respiratory illness, can spread between people. Most human cases are believed to have originated from exposure to animals in a market selling meat and seafood in Wuhan, the New York Times reports. But a few cases have no discernible link to animals, causing the CDC to exercise caution to ensure the disease does not reach the U.S. ”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/suzannerowankelleher/2020/01/17/the-cdc-is-screening-passengers-at-three-us-airports-for-chinese-coronavirus-that-has-killed-two/#66a8469023e9
https://apnews.com/5e42ddf6414d214a8d86a8ba153d82a1
The reports from back in January when China was not being forth coming about it’s spread. It’s easy to forget that people all over were still unsure of its virulence. “Confirmation of any sustained human-to-human spread of the virus outside of China, as well as any documented deaths, would bolster the case for reconvening the World Health Organisation’s Emergency Committee to consider again whether to declare a public health emergency of international concern.” https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-germany/germany-identifies-first-case-of-deadly-coronavirus-idUSKBN1ZR057
The CDC is not Trump.
Trump acted on Jan 31.
CDC was working before then, however lacking ( 3 airports).
Let’s be clear about the details.
The CDC is not Trump.
Trump acted on Jan 31.
CDC was working before then, however lacking ( 3 airports).
They issued a “level one” travel advisory on Jan 6th, same day Hong Kong started screenings. Trump got going on Jan 31, but really Feb 2nd.
Let’s be clear about the details.
I was not inaccurate.
The point was they had first hand knowledge earlier, not that they responded better. Remember touting Thailand’s superior reactions and being cautioned that information was not open in Thailand? Apparently they were busy not taking it seriously either. https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/boxing/large-number-of-thailands-coronavirus-cases-traced-to-kick-boxing-event/ar-BB11y1VD
This is not a criticism of Thailand but a reality check that stats are only as reliable as their users choose to make them.
The only
2 countries that have trustworthy reports of untrustworthy numbers are the US and Iran.
Given that the epidemiological model for this virus projects a 56% statewide infection rate, I fully expect some familiar faces to no longer be around once the smoke clears. Even if the local infection rate is a quarter of that, it’s going to be a very sad situation.
Assume your hands are contaminated every time you touch something in a public space. Keep them away from your face. Wash your hands and disinfect your doorknobs when you return home. Disinfect the faucet handles. Better yet is to carry a small spray bottle with a 10% bleach solution and some paper towels to carry with you. Pre-emptively spray every surface you touch in a public space. If someone asks what you are doing, offer to spray their hands. Also, assume that you are the asymptomatic carrier whenever you are in an enclosed public space. Start using masks at the earliest opportunity. You can even make your own using an old tee shirt. The stretchiness of the knit fabric keeps gaps from happening and it can be folded under for triple-thickness to compensate for its porosity. One knot behind the head is all that is required. You don’t want to be the guy who infects the store clerk who is compelled to interact with hundreds of people a day, or looking back at a crisis situation thinking of things you could easily have done but didn’t. Go the extra mile. It will, at the very least, make you feel better, and at the most keep you from becoming an unwitting virus bomb.
very good, thank you.this is what we all should be doing
Ok, so on the low end the average mortality death rate is about 1 percent, newsome says expect 25.5 million Californians to get infected. That’s 255,000 dead Californians. China has less than 4000 and the are already loosening travel restrictions because they claim they are ahead of it. Do we suck that bad compared to China or does anyone else have a problem with those numbers?
“Do we suck that bad compared to China……”
Yes. We’re in the same league as Italy and Spain as far as failing to stop the spread. And the numbers of infections and deaths have been growing exponentially since about the 10th of this month.
Italy now has more dead than China and it’s still spreading rapidly there, while in China it is diminishing rapidly. As a percentage of population, Italy is most affected.
Italy has 886 cases/1 million people, Spain has about 550/1 million, China has 54 cases/1 million, USA has 82 cases/1 million, UK has 74 cases/1 million, Switerland we are about to start hearing about with 874 cases/1 million. Please so your math and stop spreading misinformation. We are on no where near the same trajectory as any of Europe. Fake news and fear mongering is not ok. No we are not China and we are not Europe we are the damn USA the best country on this planet and we are going to crush this virus like we do everything else.
Get back to us when you understand the significance of exponential growth rates, and how they make snapshot comparisons of statistics in evolving situations useless. This has been explained elsewhere, and I’m not going to waste any more time replying to someone who can only pull numbers off a screen. But you can try a snappy comeback if it makes you feel better.
Logarithmic growth is one thing, but we don’t know if there wasn’t already an exponential number of cases within the community before the tests. Don’t conflate reported ceases with a growth in cases.
Deaths will be more telling against growth of cases… but that can only be extrapolated when there are firm numbers on actual cases.
Given that testing is rationed, due to a severe shortage of test supplies, to cases where there are enough symptoms to have a higher probability of a positive test, it is a justified assumption that the rate of growth of confirmed cases is some reasonably consistent portion of unknown infections. They both grow exponentially, with rates separated by some multiplier at any point in time. In other words, the confirmed cases provide a minimal estimate of the extent of infection in the population. The trick is to know what the multiplier should be. A high multiplier is a bad thing, since it indicates more widespread infection. It could also suggests a lower rate of severity per infection, but that would be offset by more opportunities for more vulnerable people to become infected. So the extent of infection is the primary concern. And we are now getting a growing body of death data, which will become much larger in the coming weeks.
The model was premised on no social distancing, so hopefully that will be greatly reduced.
I was trying to reckon this while building a chicken coop today…the potential episode peak is “devastatingly high” at a rate of “lightening.”
If we achieve 75% family isolation…75% of people are only with their own family group 6 days out of 7
That slows the virus outbreak to the point that we dont overwhelm our stupidly fragile medical system.
But…we have to wait until a workable vaccine gets delivered.
Since it surely wont be america that gets it done first, cheapest nor best, hopefully they share it with us despite the way we are behaving nationally.
Oh, we are in a fine state of affairs
How is any of that helping anyone? “Our stupidly fragile medical system?” ” Since it surely wont be america that gets it done first, cheapest nor best?” That’s a self fulfilling prophecy. Americans are to be humbled into self hatred because the haters only know their hate is true. Sheesh.
Reduce it by 75%, still bad.
It’s now official, the US has the highest rate of COVID-19 spread in the world, edging out Italy (raw numbers of new cases). New York State has the highest rate of spread per unit population, also edging Italy.
The US numbers got revised downward somewhat, but are still in the top league.
Of course the documented spread goes up when documentation is started. Italy’s stats are smaller than reality too by not being identified as they are not testing people who are not sick either. Italy is population is about 20% of the US’s. And they are going to reach a point soon where the maximum number of people available to be infected have been infected. There will be fewer left uninfected and their new cases start to drop. Well before the US get there. The issue is whether the US ends up with a lower death rate because the medical system was helped to cope.
Most cases are in a particular region in Italy, Lombardi.
So, while Italy’s case load is approaching 50k, Lombardi has a population of 10 million.
They are no where close to maximum infected, fyi.
Italy also sent the US 1/2 a million tests on a C130 this week.
They are not “not testing people”.
They have been testing over 12,000 a day for a month or so.
82/1 million in US, 886/1 million Italy.
Yes. Although bleach is very toxic. Hand sanitizer or rubbing alcohol would be better.
Don’t drink any. Hand sanitizer and rubbing alcohol are toxic too when taken internally. An occasional application of a 1:10 dilution of household bleach doesn’t doesn’t harm your skin.
some ideas. if we don’t have hospital beds we need to set up beds elsewhere.tents,quickly put together temporary buildings etc.
also why don’t we have hand washing stations everywhere,with posted instructions. don’t the portapotty people have them? frequent hand washing is easy at home but not in town when it is way more important
masks -everyone should wear masks when out. None available ? Improvise. Scarves, fabric.etc. Have a sewing machine and fabric? Make it up. Maybe even a short version of a burqua
self isolation is slowing the spread and will increase the likelihood of having needed health services available
I don’t know why the medical community isn’t looking at what the Chinese learned. Treat this in isolation centers, if you treat this in the hospital then the hospital will become the isolation center and there is no more medical care. It is very simple, even for the Chinese with comparatively unlimited PPEs to what we have, every piece of equipment is precious, why have a situation where you have to replace it constantly. If you watch what the Chinese had to do to PROTECT THEIR MEDICAL STAFF so that they MAINTAINED A FUNCTIONING MEDICAL SYSTEM is they realized that taking on and off PPEs were the infection vector for those health care workers so they suited up with a diaper for full aerosol contamination and kept in all in place for the entire shift in an isolated environment for just CV patients. At the end of the shift was a full decontamination of those outer layers with every safety protocol for disrobing and disposal of the contaminated PPE’s and strait to showers. If people think we won’t loose our medical staff in short order to illness in a business as usual setting they aren’t thinking. Again, go to http://www.cgtn.com (China Global Television Network) and watch the videos on how they did it, they are sealed in sealed isolated environments for their own safety.
Also, there are videos on youtube that show how to plumb a ventilator “tree” to serve 4 patients. A CPAP machine is a ventilator, get creative.
Do you have a more direct link?
To CGTN? No, I have been watching it daily since January so I don’t go to the website. We get it on Dish ch279.
If you were asking about a link the the splitting of ventilators to support 4pts, I couldn’t find the youtube video someone posted on a very active comment section, but I did a search and did find this and it is pretty damned good
https://emcrit.org/pulmcrit/split-ventilators/
Thanks.
I saw some of that footage. Also the health workers were not allowed to go home to their families until they got time off. This kept it safe for their families. People who shopped for those in lockdown and delivered items were in full protective gear as well. China’s lockdown makes ours look like a block party.
I haven’t seen anything about disinfecting cell phones. They are one of the biggest carriers of germs that we carry around with us. If you wash your hands and then pick up your dirty phone, you may as well not have washed your hands at all. Be thorough, be safe.
and shoe bottoms. Spray the bottoms of your shoes when you get home.
🇺🇸South Korea is four times smaller than California and they test 19,000 people a day before we even began testing. 🖖
But not before their own rate of infection was high. The South Korean’s also created Special Management Zones, had the “good fortune” to have their explosion of cases ID’d faster as due a unique and easily corralled group of young women that lends itself to special treatment, had a uniquely scientifically educated population and are not so divisive as the US. And Wikipedia had an interesting point about South Korea’s death rate being low because most of these clustered cases were young women, not so much as Italy’s demographics of older and male.
And they were properly prepared, because they used foresight and planned, and worked, and invested, to make sure that they would have all the necessary equipment and supplies, hospital beds, and personnel on hand, in the event of a crisis. And their response was organized. And they responded on a national scale. And they tested everyone. And their president didn’t say it was a hoax. And they took it seriously from day one.
Can’t learn anything if you aren’t willing to give credit where credit is due.
Question…
So will we be fined and extorted next by the utility companies for using water & electricity to wash our hands, cleaning our clothes and homes? Especially if they think we might get some relief checks?
Think tiered pricing by PG&E. What a racket.
It’s easier to stop them before they do it than after. Makes your voices heard.
kym i didnt realize you were a fear monger. people die every day. no one is getting out of here alive, i know that must be shocking news
WTF?
When a fire starts in a corner of the theater, saying quietly to yourself that none of us survive life may be smugly comforting but most people think that calmly explaining with facts that there was a problem and trying to get people to pay attention was a better response. Some people of course will call it fear mongering.
Kym,
I’m looking at what used to be a theatre.
There is no structure left, and smoke billowing from the rubble, I see bodies.
Can I call the fire dept. yet or is it “fear mongering”?
—-,
Thanks for all you do Kym.
I’m so thankful Central isn’t around to fuck with logic now.
Great job.
i think posting ‘people are going to die’ is a bit in the over redundant and yes fear mongering. when this has passed with minimal impact, and a few deaths in a few weeks, you people should be ashamed but probably will not. from where i sit a virus that takes out the weekest 2% of the population while making the world rethink some of its insane practices and also demonstrating the inablity of our government might not be a bad thing
Yo, people are dying. Confirmed deaths worldwide a week ago were about 6000. Yesterday they were over 12,000. (Today, 13,500) In one week we doubled the deaths from coronavirus that we have had so far. The speed is terrifying..
If we flatten the curve and slow the speed of the spread, less people will die. My job is to tell people that.
Within 7 miles of my home are 5 family members over 70 that I love whose deaths will put a hole in my world. To you they may be the weak…to me they are irreplaceable.
Perspective :
About 1.1 million people die every week worldwide. Almost 60 million annually.
https://ourworldindata.org/births-and-deaths
thank you
In the nature of the situation, that is not perspective, it’s a pair of blinders.
It’s like me citing that 107 billion people have lived and died on earth.
https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-16870579
Useless for this situation.
Pure uselesseness.
Going straight to overreacting helps no one either. In fact it creates poor responses.
Look at you. ..reminding everyone of what is useful.
This is where your intentions create more tension.
Tell us about medical tyranny.
What did the founders say?
Ullr,
Perspective: most people buy toilet paper, too. But when many buy it all at once…then there are empty shelves. When many more people are sick at the same than usual, then there are no beds. I have a friend whose mother got ill yesterday afternoon, she couldn’t get a bed at St. Joe’s until 6 this morning… What’s going to happen when the coronavirus hits here?
The dearth of toilet paper is caused by panicked hysteria. Panicking creates problems where their are no problems- like maybe people overusing medical providers who then can’t provide beds.
Obviously it is impacting our Healthcare system and when it supercedes it’s capacity more people are going to suffer, but what it really shows is the slim margins we operate on. The # of weekly deaths have increased by just 1% (worldwide) and the sick by another slim margin (for which I don’t have the numbers) and the Healthcare system is starting to burst at the seams.
This isn’t a massive influx of sick, it is a small increase when looking at the bigger picture.
Your TP analogy doesn’t hold water. People who horde TP will have a many month supply and soon there will be a glut of TP on the shelves… it’s not as if people are shitting more.
I think you missed the point.
I’m pretty sure I got your point. Correct my comment otherwise. Hospitals, ICU’s, staff and every other resource connected to this part of the Healthcare system is going to take a hit, no doubt. The consequences to the stress on the system are going to have a ripple effect, no doubt. But so are the attempts to stymie the incidents of viral contraction. The effects of little action must be weighed against over-reaction.
IF Rover missed the point, it could be in the language used to communicate more effectively with out the one upmanshup that’s drowning all these opinions.
Ullr,
The point is no matter who is at fault for a medical system that is going to be overwhelmed, unless we manage to flatten that curve, then a lot of people are going to die needlessly. People who wouldn’t have died.
When you try to brush off those possible deaths as something people do every day as if they are just crumbs of no importance, it is really frustrating.
My tp analogy was trying to show that while it is normal for people to die and for people to buy toilet paper, it isn’t normal to have people emptying shelves and dying in large numbers. And abnormal behavior, requires abnormal response.
I agree that we do have to weigh the effects of the cure (various remedies including asking for large swaths of our world to go into social isolation which is economically damaging) against the disease. (We still drive cars even though autos kill large numbers of us yearly) But to brush aside so many experts pointing out that huge numbers of people could die if we don’t do these things is ignoring the very human costs of these deaths.
The CDC’s conservative estimates of deaths in the US from COVID-19 ran, last time I looked, from 200,000 deaths to about 1.7 million deaths. (The study out of London estimated 2.2 million deaths) But that doesn’t count those that die from untreated medical issues if our system breaks down.
It doesn’t count those permanently damaged by the disease who will be draining our health system. It doesn’t count that the likely spike in deaths of health care workers and first responders will further deplete our health care system leaving us vulnerable in the future.
It doesn’t count the economic hit to our economy if large numbers of people die. (In addition, we don’t know what those people might be do if they lived–cures for cancer, a solution for the Middle East, a way to create energy from thin air.)
I’m not saying that we can’t look at “running hot” but, Italy tried to ignore the disease and the resulting mess is hard to watch. When you dismiss so many experts and the evidence we can see in Italy, with the casual shrug that “eh, a lot of folks die every year”, you’re not offering much but fatalism to weigh against that. If you want to argue that the financial cost of what we are doing is too much, then give some information about what kind of damage this will be and place it against the number of those likely to die if we don’t take measures.
You’re misreading my tone.
I’m not dismissing any of the salient points that you or anyone else has brought up.
I’m trying to temper the tone from panic to urgency and to give pause to the idea that draconian measures are needed without bothering to reflect either on the ramifications or alternatives.
This is unprecedented, so the experts have no real expertise in this kind of scale. They are learning on the fly like the rest of us.
Why this Nobel laureate predicts a quicker coronavirus recovery: ‘We’re going to be fine’
“While many epidemiologists are warning of months, or even years, of massive social disruption and millions of deaths, Levitt says the data simply don’t support such a dire scenario — especially in areas where reasonable social distancing measures are in place.
“”What we need is to control the panic,” he said. In the grand scheme, “we’re going to be fine.”
“Here’s what Levitt noticed in China: On Jan. 31, the country had 46 new deaths due to the novel coronavirus, compared with 42 new deaths the day before.
“Although the number of daily deaths had increased, the rate of that increase had begun to ease off. Essentially, although the car was still speeding up, it was not accelerating as rapidly as before.
““This suggests that the rate of increase in number of the deaths will slow down even more over the next week,” Levitt wrote in a report he sent to friends Feb. 1 that was widely shared on Chinese social media. And soon, he predicted, the number of deaths would be decreasing every day.
“Three weeks later, Levitt told the China Daily News that the virus’ rate of growth had peaked. He predicted that the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in China would end up around 80,000, with about 3,250 deaths.
“This forecast turned out to be remarkably accurate: As of March 16, China had counted a total of 80,298 cases and 3,245 deaths — in a nation of nearly 1.4 billion people where roughly 10 million die every year. The number of newly diagnosed patients has dropped to around 25 a day, with no cases of community spread reported since Wednesday.”
https://news.yahoo.com/why-nobel-laureate-predicts-quicker-210318391.html
Ullr.
In two weeks Italy went from 1 death to 233.
The next two weeks brought that 233 to 4,000 + deaths.
That means that roughly 8,000 critical patients needed ventilators over 4 weeks.
In one region mostly.
For someone who hates Government spending, it sounds like your making a case to spend trillions more on healthcare through over-stocking and preparing for worst case scenarios not being controlled.
You criticize spending to expand margins, and then criticize for “slim margins” of operation.
What’s the deal?
Not what I said. Not what I implied.
Use a reference so I know why you are misinterpreting with aplomb.
What’s the point?
Somethings Never Change.
“ABT”
And some things always change.
Like your name.
It’s almost like a
BAD RELIGION
You’re out of line for your attempt to divert this thread from discussion of the pandemic to revisiting some old battle over political philosophy with Ullr.
I’m out of your skewed lines.
But I’m right within mine.
Carry on with the conflictions you carry.
Ullr,
You are not being honest.
No one is panicking.
Were looking at the situation, the numbers, and your response is, “people die”.
You can’t spin that into toned balancing.
That is clearly in the same under-responsive tone that brought us here to screwed-ville.
“No one is panicking.”
I think you need to check who isn’t being honest.
As usual, you ignore what I actually wrote, so the rest of your comment merits no response.
It’s quite clear what you’re doing.
You’ve been at it for a while
Pray tell, what is it that I am doing?
Maybe you need to enlighten others because it might not be clear to them or me.
Obfuscating.
You say you take it serious while bringing up useless bewildering points of how many people die a year.
It’s short sighted and not encompassing the real challenge already here.
We will pass Italys case load this week, and you want to talk about AIDS.
My math, the formulas, they’ve been on it. I’ve been 2 weeks ahead of the curve.
That’s not panic.
That is accuracy.
You are obfuscating.
This is from Columbia University Medical center in New York. According Dr. Smith, chief of surgery, They’ve got about 3 weeks before they overshoot their patient capacity. https://twitter.com/ColumbiaSurgery/status/1241139303423623168
Here it is as a photo. Tap on it to enlarge.
12,000+ new cases in New York State today and still counting. That alone exceed’s Italy’s rate by a factor of two. There is no more room for debate, this is a severe situation. Daily deaths in the hundreds are now inevitable. The situation in New York will affect the west coast because of supply shortages.
worldometers.info/coronavirus#countries (won’t post with link for some reason)
I can’t imagine what’s going through Dr. Smith’s mind right now.
Let’s have no more ideological pissing matches in these threads. It’s like picking fistfights while the shells are falling.
I don’t think many, if anyone, had said there will be no infections. There will be lots. The debate is what that means with quite a bit of running around the same old ruts of blame. I’m not sure what you are saying should happen here that would make a difference to what is going to happen.
I should add that the number appears to have been the result of someone entering “total cases” to the “new cases” column for New York. The more recent update has a number “only” equal to Italy’s for today, and the US number for today is now equal to the highest previous number for Italy. In either case, what the numbers mean is that the situation is very serious. Do you understand exponential growth curves and the difficulty of reversing them? It’s the same thing that makes stopping a fire moving through a room a much more complex problem than stopping a fire burning in a trash can. The bigger it is, the faster it spreads. Now consider that firefighting resources are inadequate for anything but a fire in the corner of the room with the trash can. That’s the situation we’re in with coronavirus in this country. So I am out of patience for the numbnuts’ who say “but the fire is only in the trash can (or that corner of the room) and it represents only a small fraction of the oxidation happening in the world today.” That fire can spread faster than innumerate people can imagine.
Consider that today’s deaths in this country (112) exceed the average daily rate of deaths from auto accidents (110). And it is set to increase on something approximating an exponential curve for a while. Is that something we are supposed to accept? And that’s not even considering all the other consequences – hospital stays, medical costs bankrupting people, and permanent lung damage for severe cases. People will be living with the consequences for years to come.
What should happen here is that people need to take the situation seriously and do everything possible to protect themselves and others. But local people are still doing stupid shit (like voluntary trips to infected regions and not isolating themselves on return, or not keeping social distance). And the rationalization and denial that some people in these threads show facilitates keeping on doing stupid shit. There is an excellent chance that someone has already brought undetected coronavirus into Humboldt without showing symptoms. That person, especially if they don’t take the situation seriously, could be a “super spreader” like the one who brought coronavirus into Britain. Got it?
I agree that trying to score ideological points over coronavirus is just useless, distracting noise in the current situation.
Best time to check the “today” numbers seems to be around 4:00 PM (0:00 GMT)
More tests = more cases. Don’t conflate more cases with a surge in new infections. They are finding more people who have it along with additional cases.
That actually makes the situation worse, since it means more undetected infections lurking, ready to infect others and to show symptoms that drive them into the known cases column. With the shortage of tests they are reserved for situations in which someone is already showing symptoms, to assure that it’s not influenza. We do not have the drive-by testing that was available in South Korea.
It doesn’t make it worse if people actually exercise a modicum of cleanliness. More testing at this point is definitely going to show an increase in cases. Not everbody is being tested so not all cases will be known. The virus is not an independent agent. It’s spread is dependent on what we do. Act accordingly.
Kym- that is if they do nothing to reorganize. Isn’t that the point? To adapt to cope, to act in a sensible way to do what people can do? Not to have time taken up with hysteria. People need to have their heads together for each of them to decide what is possible for them to do to help. Reporters can do much to help that and much to frustrate it too.
Yes, these are scenarios where there isn’t something done to slow the spread (though they aren’t worst case scenarios either). Today, New York began a Shelter at Home program. That will take awhile to show a dip in the death stats. But hopefully, deaths will start to slow sooner rather than later.
People do need to be sensible but denying there is a problem isn’t sensible. In Italy people continued to act like there wasn’t a problem and now they are overwhelmed.
Darwin’s Theory of evolution.
Stupidity thins the herd.
Yet we insist on keeping the weak genetic material protected.
From a strong evolutionary position, you are creating more pressure that will need to be relieved at some point, whether you agree or not.
This situation is here, and you have little effect on anyone or anything outside your SoHum sphere of influence.
You definitely don’t control the youth, they will listen to their peers, and maybe they will live, maybe they will die.
Who knows.
ABT,
Someone who doesn’t know about an issue isn’t stupid, they are uninformed. My job is to make sure they know.
Stopping suffering isn’t creating more pressure, its relieving it. Just as women who have an education are less likely to birth lots of children, so to are less pressured people. (Stressful situations lead to more births not less.)
I have very little influence but I choose to use it to educate and to help. Beats the heck out of gleefully rubbing your hands in pleasure at the thought of “thinning the herd.”
Stay positive, kym,
Theres often a separation of intelligence and compassion.
We all have our part to play.
“Why the caged bird sings”
Some people deny there is a problem (not really just minimize it) and some people exaggerate the problem and create problems by panicking others. The point should be to get it right and not use real problems to leverage political agendas.
Thanks Kym for the above comment. You just explained exactly why we all should do our best to slow the spread of this virus (even those who think it’s overkill). Our elders are not expendable. Each is irreplaceable to his/her loved ones. As a group, they are an irreplaceable source of knowledge, skills, wisdom, and perspective.
We can no longer comfort ourselves with the notion that severe cases only afflict the elderly and the infirm:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm
One thing happening with this outbreak is the occurrence of “cytokines storms,” an excessive response of the immune system that causes severe inflammation affecting the respiratory tract. It happens in healthy people with robust immune systems.
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/03/the-coronavirus-turns-deadly-when-it-leads-to-cytokine-storm-identifying-this-immune-response-is-key-to-patients-survival-report.html
3rdeye,
Thanks for your contributions on this event.
Well being elderly, I was never much comforted by that. I do Not think anyone who looked at it ever said that young people were never seriously affected. Just that young people were less likely to die. There is too much talking in absolutes around here and always has been.
There aren’t any bodies piling up dude!!! Maybe in Italy but not here! Man you got some major issues bro. When this is all over and the numbers are tallied we are going to need to have a serious talk about your fear mongering and agenda pushing antics. You’re as bad as those senators who sold a bunch of stock before the virus got here.
It would be a waste of time and effort.
Too many people have pointed out the obvious, and as long as kym uses kid gloves with him, he will continue to push his hatred and incessant blame game.
Maybe everyone can limit themselves to 5 comments a day. That might have a positive effect on kyms workload.
The deaths in the US are doubling every three days. I don’t think Brian is out of line.
And everyone including those of you who I disagree with intensely have a platform to say what you believe.
But be careful when you want someone else muzzled. The person doing the muzzling may not agree with you on who is the one that is passing around bad information.
I moderate with a light hand. But if I was moderating with a heavier hand, Brian wouldn’t be where I started to eliminate bad information. That said I wish Bryan and the rest of you could point out facts without resorting to ugly opinions on someone’s intelligence and character. Try and imagine your crusty but loveable Uncle Joe on the other end of the argument.
New York is on a path to becoming very Italy-like per the numbers coming in today. And there are still enough local people doing stupid shit like not quarantining themselves after trips to Washington and the Bay Area that the probability of a local outbreak is very high. Those are not problems you can solve with your 1911. Read, follow sources, then type. Otherwise, you’re just adding to the noise.
New York deaths are doubling every two days.
Once it hits Humboldt it’ll be known as the [edit] virus
Every commercial massage establishment has been mandated to cease by the state. Considering the infrastructure these would be a place to alleviate the hospitals. First, taking in people who don’t have the virus, then when infection consumes taking in those who have milder symptoms.
Wow fear fear fear and more fear. There’s less people here so less will get sick. My god all these politicians are pushing for is to scare people and stress people out more which will make more people get sick. Be responsible and cautious but don’t play into this fear factor they are selling you!!!! My god!
It’s not fear, it’s awareness of how everything we do could affect the outcome. That line of defense is doubly important because once the virus is inside the gates, there will be very little backup from our inadequate local health system.
That presumes you can stop it. At best it can only be slowed down to allow time to adapt. Our inadequate local health system has not been created by anything other than our local inadequate social theories. Which we simply cling to now.
It’s not a matter of stopping it, it’s a matter of slowing the spread to a manageable rate. And you are correct that our inadequate health system doesn’t help the situation.
Fear, especially irrational fear, causes great stress, of which people will die…
In fact, people die, all the time, and, if you live long enough, something will kill you.
People in rural locations will die, because they can’t get to decent care, fast enough. It’s a trade off, to live in a nice rural location, or to live in a dirty fucking city, where you will get sick often.
People who live rural, learn to take care of themselves. In Humboldt, you will find many resilient people.
The hospitals, in the sticks, can be absolutely horrible, like Jerold Phelps, and like St Josephs, and, they could be very screwy, like Mad River. If you are bleeding, or shot, or stabbed, they’re all equally bad. If you are having a heart attack, hopefully you will arrive in time. Take an aspirin, and pray. If you need surgery, get out quick.
That’s the way it is.
In Trinity, Trinity Hospital is actually decent! Nice people, who care. Redding offers average facilities. Chico is about the same, but Marysville is Adventist Health country…
Maintain Helicopter Ambo Insurance, a great investment! Get flown to Alta Bates, Oakland, or UC Davis Sacramento, or to your favorite. Maintain out of town doctors, if possible.
That’s all, end of story. I have seen patients survive Ambulance rides of 3 hours to get out of Modoc, and I have talked to people who had extremely serious and complicated medical cases who lived in Redway.
The doctor in this story, works at a tiny hospital in Mammoth Lakes, one of the richest places North of LA, and is an Internist/Pulmonologist/CMO. He probably gets a large salary, to fuss about lack of facilities. Mammoth Hospital is one of the oddest and most “precious” facilities anywhere, offering stuff like Orthopedic Surgery, for god’s sake… They have weird hiring practices, and discriminate freely…
Fact is, decades of allowing hospitals to flounder under terrible government support, local corruption and mismanagement, and, fraudulent billing practices along with massive regulation, have left us with no choices, few physicians, and inadequate facilities.
Only massive infusions of government capitol, fed by greatly increased taxation, will ever come close to mediating the problem, and the Corporate Hospitals, need to be broken up unless they will provide facilities more evenly.
No form of “Medicare for All” will ever work, and we need politicians to support needed taxation and support for hospitals, or we will never accomplish anything!
Fussing and spreading fear is useless. Work with what you have, or find a way to improve the situation, Doctor…
!
“Fussing and spreading fear is useless. Work with what you have, or find a way to improve the situation, Doctor…”
Useless in what way?
You have to understand the goal before your criticize the methods.
Let me know when you learn to compose a cohesive and comprehensible sentence.
I will be happy to discuss current challenges in medical care with you…
The main challenge, is that medical care is pretty much non-existent, on the North Coast, unless you like the “Mid-Level” providers they have here… The hospitals are broke and broken, the providers moved away, died, retired or gave up!
Healthcare is like great sex, everyone wants it, but nobody wants to pay the cost.
“You have to understand the goal before your criticize the methods.”
The comment didn’t need anything else.
Healthcare is self care, until emergency medicine is needed.
We already have a healthcare system for both classes of people.
The intelligent ones will plan ahead.
Whatever.
Like I always say, I am not smart because I’m old, I’m old because I’m smart…
My parents survived WW2 and the depression, they emigrated from Europe and instilled in me the need to always be prepared, fear socialism and communism, and that people and the government are capable of terrible things under the right conditions. I notice how most of the complaints are from scared people with a dependance on the government to resolve their needs or problems. That mentality has been taught to them over the years and is not normal in in a free society. Our family is prepared, and it really doesn’t cost that much to have on hand food and items for most emergencies if amassed over time. Having traveled to many countries, we are very lucky to have the USA as our home.
Day #22 of Quarantine. Today I beat an old lady with a stick for the can of cranberries my ma wanted.
it was probably the humane thing to do anyway because ‘ people are going to die’
Day #23
National Guard arrested you and any other thugs, kept you in worse conditions until quarantine was over, then to face trial and punishment.
Good neigbors gladly assist the lady you beat.
Always mistaking the point.
Or making a different one.
I frankly want enforced quarantine.
I want the National Guard.
It’s our only chance of having a 1/2 normal life in 2 months.
The longer we play, the longer the game.
If we can control the numbers we can have health screenings and quick tests ready for our shelter-emergence in June.
We then live through summer with distancing and light lockdowns and light ecomony (and continued testing for tracking) through winter until vaccine is ready.
Then travel and life continue.
That is my #1 plan.
Congrats. Trump has heard your pleas.
https://kymkemp.com/2020/03/22/president-trump-sends-national-guard-to-california-washington-and-new-york/
Not what I want yet.
We need 50,000 beds per hotspot at least.
This piddly diddly 1,000 or 2,000 bed setups will be enough for the sick doctors, not much more.
I want enforced quarantine. To be quite frank about it.
Quarantine yourself and let others worry about themselves. You happen to live in a spot where you can hole up without fear… take advantage.
The longer the masses pass it around, the longer the quasi-lockdown, the longer the run, the more cases, the worse economy, the more death, until eventually deciding for more force anyway for a longer quarantine.
And I have a girlfriend that is stuck in Italy I can’t see until this shits over.
Life is not normal.
I want it back to normal and it will take more than me hoping for the best from under a rock.
The Socratic Method has died here
Sid,
Your 2 comments from meltdown and banned till new name.
See you soon in your next fake.
Lol too bad it was the next day Brian. I’m smooth criminal Brian. Don’t you know the first 24 hours is crucial to catch someone Brian? Maybe your sources could help you out there Brian. Can you look up how to have a sense of humor on Wikipedia Brian? Besides, I took from a rich old lady and gave it to my much poorer ma, I thought you and Bernie would approve?
Brian is legal.
Hey Trump haters,
Remember the stay on evictions, foreclosures during the Obama administration A\after the crash?
Remember them working on direct cash payments to the public?
Remember the suspension of student loan loan payments and waived interest?
Remember the shovel ready projects which never materialized due to regulations he would not lift.
ETC……
I remember who got billions though…..
Hey Remember when, remember when I said I don’t care for most politicians, red or blue? I criticize any of them. Right now Trump satand out as a becon of everything that can be wrong with a wannabe leader. He deserves every criticism I have of him. It doesn’t bother me when you criticize Obama, Hillary, just don’t use them to compare so Trump doesn’t appear to be as bad as he is.
Criticize them on their own failings. Otherwise it’s just wadaboutism.
There is nothing wrong with disliking Trump. It’s my right. Some of you can’t swallow that. I am not required to like Trump, get it through your heads. Don’t take it personally, he’ll be gone and we’ll be on to the next.
Our medical system here is already over loaded. 3 months to get an appointment with Doctor, 2 to 3 months to schedule a medical procedure. Mad River ships out severe cases. St Joes finally had a meeting about a particular person, whom, because of poor life style choices (drugs and alcohol), needs yet another pint of blood – his 28th this year when the blood bank is short. Being in a rural area has it’s good points and obvious bad points – it’s not a good place to be when sick or old.
Diane now add medicare for all to that and guess what happens.
The elderly that paid into it their entire life can’t even get teeth & hearing aids as it is. Well you can get a denture and it only takes a little over a year.
So, open the borders and just add everybody to it…there’s plenty for everybody, right? Geez.
The Law of Neccessary Laws- make a law then another is immediately needed to fix the mess the law has made. It is like squeezing sand- eventually it will be totally enclosed in the first but by that time most of the sand has dropped. Better to cup the sand and allow the law of gravity to limit the amount.
Ding ding ding! I think we have an answer!! What is, Italy? No care for anyone over 80! What’s Bernie keep saying? Triage Triage! In his warbly, shaky voice, completely oblivious of the fact that he is in the age group that would be triaged with no care. Ha! Can’t make this shit up.
Thirdeye, see , this is where my snark is born and grown.
Well, this isn’t exactly like the situation with The Hermit of Grizzly Mountain, where you got owned. [edit]
Whoa… I hope Kym can at least edit THIS one. Stressing is no excuse for dragging others into it.
Are you kidding?
You can’t handle half the bullshit I take on around here.
One thread of one event and your out of patience.
I’m glad your not fighting me on this event, because you’ve been wrong plenty before.
Looks like your still bitter.
If you want balance, prove it.
Seriously, there’s no point to the information-free exchange of snarky comments you had with the semi-automatic pistol guy above. You are both at fault for that. That’s a different situation from the thread I referred to your snark over, with a different commenter who was factual and deserved respect. You take bullshit around here? Yes you do, but you give as good as you get. Cry me a river.
Sometimes you post good information but bury it with your Trump Derangement Syndrome. As a result, your signal-to-noise ratio is poor. Stop being so petulant and engage in a little self-reflection instead. Whether or not you take that advice is entirely up to you and I do not intend to argue with you about it.
Can you provide a link to where Bernie says this? But if the hospital beds get overwhelmed, doctors will have to triage.
As is happening in Bergamo, Breschia, Madrid, and, soon, New York. Over 9000 cases in NYC, and each day is “INCOMING!”
Guest, wheres the moral lesson for this ol chap?
Does superior objectivity only apply to 1/2 the class?
I don’t know what you are referring to or even who you are referring to. I’m not in charge of who is going to be reasonable but, like the man said, I know irrationality when I hear it.
A little perspective on numbers. These numbers are low, but should start to paint a picture as time keeps moving on. Infection rates among the general population :
China 0.005%
South Korea 0.02%
Italy 0.09%
Spain 0.06%
Worldwide average for countries that have confirmed cases is 0.004% or 41 cases per 1 million people.
And, of those infected, 95-99% are fine.
Of course, the cases and deaths are going to get worse before they get better, but beware of those pushing “cures” which may be more detrimental than the disease.
“You never let a serious crisis go to waste.”
SARS-Covid 19 also only had 2 months in each region, give or take, and with mostly extreme measures like lockdowns of different styles.
2 of 4 of those examples have controlled their outbreak.
Namely the two with better numbers.
S. Korea and China could be learned from.
The other 2 are Italy and Spain.
Spain and Italy are increasing their numbers daily, so your numbers are extremely fluid on the uptrend without a clear end in sight.
And then there’s us.
For more perspective.
I didn’t use USA numbers because the testing has been minimal. The rate in the USA is less than most at 0.009%.
Sure. I wouldn’t have either.
I was more just stating that we are growing in numbers not shrinking.
Also, when was the last virus that introduced itself to executive levels of Governments across the globe within 4 months of discovery?
Dunno. Not in my lifetime. Threats and possibilities, but this is first to run in a long time. Bird and swine flu burned out. Ebola was never a real threat since it burned so hot and quickly.
Indeed, a once in a lifetime event.
And that’s a good case scenario.
No one here suggests looking at Africa that has very few infections.
Covid has to compete with Ebola. “Thars only room fer one of us round these parts”–Ebola, as it palms its six shooter
Again, perspective :
There are 38 million cases of HIV/Aids worldwide.
That is 0.5% of the world population, or 100 times the infection rate of Covid 19.
To be clear, I’m not saying this isn’t a very serious issue. I am saying that knee-jerk reaction is going to cause more harm than not. We need to be careful in insisting salvation from our “authorities.” It will come at a price.
The price will be much higher with a relaxed attitude.
See italy.
There is no reason to think that in 2 weeks we wont also have 4,000 dead.
People with Aids don’t die 8 days after diagnosis on average, people can survive a decade or more with AIDS, and it has been established for 40 years.
Maybe you should make a real formula instead of these knee-jerk attempts of sensory reduction.
You do realize, at least with comments, you only operate in extremes. I’ve said repeatedly that the virus is a serious situation.
While trying to seriously compare it to AIDS.
I don’t think I’m the extreme, I’m highlighting inconsistency.
These are real numbers against a real situation. The media engages in sensationalism; that needs to be tempered with real numbers for people to get a perspective on the situation.
I don’t watch TV but I can guarantee that nobody in the MSM has announced that the current infection rate in the USA is less than 1/100th of a percent.
Here, more numbers: the current infection rate is 41 per 1 million worldwide in countries with cases. The mortality rate for vehicles is 180 per 1 million. Where’s the panic?
Not wasting anymore time on this nonsense.
Snapshot comparisons are meaningless in a situation developing with exponential growth rates. That information is in this thread if you are willing to look for it. I do not have the patience to explain it again now. HIV is not nearly as contagious as COVID-19.
I’m very familiar, thank you.
The bailout bill did not pass.
The markets will bleed tomorrow, heavily.
There are two redwood trees. One was planted 50 years ago. One was planted 20 years ago. That one is much smaller than the other. Clearly it will remain small and never become the size of the other one.
And if you don’t get why I’m posting this, you haven’t read some of the arguments being made in this thread… or are part of the problem.
Unless someone poisons the 50 year old tree.
We don’t live in a vacuum.
Chaos is the best way to define our natural system.
Humans are the aberration.
I learned that the number of hospital beds ICU etc… is controlled by the state they are in, that include respirators, CT equipment etc . Makes sense that each state has different needs and logistical differences.