Over 230 Businesses Approved to Reopen, Don’t Travel, and News Coming About Eventually Reopening Restaurants, Says Dr. Frankovich


“Supplemental” Media Availability Q&A with Frankovich 5/19 

Late yesterday, Humboldt County Public Health Officer Dr. Teresa Frankovich decided to address a few things with a supplemental video.  She and now many county officials, have been answering questions since the stay-at-home orders were instituted on a two question per media outlet roughly three times a week basis, not including her updates to the Board of Supervisors meetings. The Joint Information Center takes the questions, re-words them, and reads them to her on camera for her response. The resulting video tape, called a Media Availability, is then provided to news outlets at the end of the day.

Here are some of the main points covered in the May 19th “supplemental” Media Availability session with a short recap of answers, followed by questions we would have liked to ask in response if appropriate.

30 secs in: 

Question:  Can you talk a little bit about the updated shelter in place order that allows lower risk businesses and activities related to Phase 2 of California’s Roadmap to Modified Stay At Home order?

Answer by Dr. Frankovich: 

Sure, I’d be happy to do that.  I did just want to take a moment, and again, express our sympathies to the family of the resident of Alder Bay who passed away this morning.  Our community is certainly thinking about you. 

Again, I just wanna point out that the outbreak that we are seeing at in our assisted care facility, and certainly our loss is related to that outbreak or an important reminder to us, again, about as the fact that as we ease out of shelter in place, which we must do as a community, that all of the efforts that all of us make to protect people that are older and vulnerable are critically important.

And so when we ask individuals to mask, to socially distance, to not gather in groups outside of their family units, there is a really big reason to do so to ask that,  for that, from our community.  And I would hope that we all take care of each other in that way. 

So the order itself is actually a supplement to my previous order.  And it really just basically goes through the fact that where we are right now, the variance that we applied for through CDPH to allow us to navigate through stage 2 at a local pace – and frankly that’s important because it not only gives us the ability to move more quickly as conditions on the ground allow, but it also allows us to tailor our response easily if we have concerns in terms of what is happening with our case numbers.

So, I think that what we basically outlined in the order is what this variance allows us to do. We just have a brief list of what the governor has already listed as sort of a statewide ability to open, and so it includes some of the sports things we’ve talked about, you know, like golf and tennis, child care, some office spaces that don’t serve customers as well as retail businesses that operate curbside or delivery, and that includes restaurants under there.  What our variance allows us to do is to basically take all of those and perhaps add something to that.

So, what we are asking now is we put in place a process for we are for instance those businesses that are allowed by the governor’s order and those businesses that have been operating curbside delivery or retail businesses, that they can actually go to our information site, to humboldtgov they can pull up their sector that their business falls in, they can pull up the guidance right there for their sector in terms of their safety plan, and then they can put their application, their plan basically right online so that we can take a look at it, make sure that they meet those guidance criteria that the state and Cal-OSHA have provided, CDPH and Cal-OSHA, and really the purpose of that is… it’s really the idea of the idea of trying to create a safest space, for both workers and community,  as possible during Covid. And I think that the fact that the business has provided that plan, we have looked at it, is a source of reassurance to the public and workers. So I think it’s an important thing to have done.

4 mins in: 

 And also in this process, we are able to provide feedback to the businesses, so if they just- it’s not intuitive to everyone about how to do this, easily- we put in a lot of information to support it out there so that people can use that resource, but we still understand if in someone’s particular business, it may be more difficult for them to think about how that could look.  And so, we are happy to help with that if people put their plan in and it looks like there are some issues, or they put in questions, we can get back to them to help with that. 

Again, the goal is just to create the safest environment possible for everyone. So what we are doing is approving those plans.  My understanding is at the start of the day today, there were over 230 that had been approved approved colluding some childcare, office spaces and retail. And we expect that process to continue. At the same time we are closely monitoring all of our Epidemiologic data, that goes to things like the trends in the number of cases we are seeing, how many clusters of cases do we have, how is our hospital capacity looking, how is our contact disease Clinical disease tracing going? Do we have capacity in those areas? And right now- our hospitals, our contact tracing- we do have capacity.  We are doing well there. Certainly we are seeing more cases than we have been seeing, and again, I think that probably reflects the fact that the community certainly some individuals in the community are being more active outside of their home and again goes to the point- We are opening things up a bit but we are still asking people for the most part, stay home except to access essential and some low risk business services, you know medical care for instance falls under essential services, and just to limit the traffic other than accessing those services and recreational opportunities for their family. 

I want to emphasize again that at this time, travel is still, should be essential travel only. We are asking people not to travel in and out of the area recreationally. It introduces risk into our community, introduces new case numbers, and then we have the potential for having many many  cases associated with that single exposure.

So again, I want to remind people that this is not a removal of our shelter in place, it is a modification of our shelter in place.  And we are doing so in a very thoughtful and deliberate manner, for a reason. so again, I really just ask for everyone’s cooperation because it’s only going to be successful if we’re do cooperate as a community. If everyone sort of does what they feel is right at the moment, and without doing it in a plan sort of way, we have potential for more disease transmission, more rapid transmission, and the possibility of not only putting our more vulnerable residents at risk, but compromising our healthcare system.  So again, we’re asking everyone to work with us in this mission to kind of navigate COVID as safely as we can.  

 

6 mins 55 sec in: 

Question:  Can you talk a little bit more about dine-in restaurants? 

Answer by Dr. Frankovich: 

Sure. So, I know that the governor has put out some additional information about restaurants today.  What I want to let people know is, right now, our restaurants are open for curbside or delivery only. 

Obviously that will change.  Our aim is to get things up and running as quickly as we can, so stay tuned for more information on that.  But right now our status has not changed. 

Anyone who has questions or concerns can call 441-5000 to get information.

 

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In my 1911 I trust
Guest
In my 1911 I trust
3 years ago

I feel really bad for restaurants. I have not eaten take out or anything in months. Even when the “restrictions” do ease, I still won’t be going to a restaurant, not because I’m afraid of covid, but because I go to relax and have a nice meal cooked for me and the mess cleaned up. Once going to a restaurant turns into the big hassle the county is trying to make it, I won’t go. No one wants dinner out to turn into a bigger hassle than dinner at home. These people are pure evil and this lockdown has evil at its core. So many people are going to have nothing after this. So many people are suffering and will continue to suffer due to these restrictions we have allowed officials that literally do nothing to impose on us. All the people for the lockdown will be writhing in debt and untold loss and suffering once this is supposedly over. No one will escape whats coming to us. All of us stupid peons deserve the economic collapse that is inevitable.

Scooter
Guest
Scooter
3 years ago

I am not going to be eating out for a couple of years, not because of the “hassle” but because I am 63 and have a health issue that places me at risk of dying. I do not want to die. The “evil” in this world is this little RNA virus that has mutated repeatedly, is not “just like the flu”, and is the most contagious disease I have seen in my life. The lockdown is to save lives, not to fuck with your cash. Sure things are going to be difficult for a long time to come, but we will pull together and work for the good of our community and this too shall pass. Quit whining and put the mask on.

Swine
Guest
Swine
3 years ago
Reply to  Scooter

Got news for you.. Everyone dies.

In my 1911 I trust
Guest
In my 1911 I trust
3 years ago
Reply to  Swine

Business owners. I want to welcome all of you to the PERMIT PROCESS. You must submit a plan for compliance before you will be permitted to reopen. Those of you who do not submit a plan and comply will be considered “black market” and will be subjected to abatements and fines. Welcome to the permit process friends, didn’t take long did it? Watch that satellite now, don’t want to be caught operating without a permit, and don’t think that they aren’t watching.

Alf
Guest
Alf
3 years ago
Reply to  Scooter

It’s one thing to be cautious with a virus like this. However, government in California, especially the governor, has proven they are driven by money and never common sense. If you did take the time to read the essential businesses list, you had to notice that there were a lot of nonessential businesses on the list. Why, because they make a lot of money. Liquor stores make a lot of money, but there is not one thing they sell that is essential. This is only one example of the hundreds. It would be different if medical, utility and few others had been on the list. This made me have zero confidence in state and local leadership. Either open up or shut down. Don’t play favorites.

Sue Moore
Guest
Sue Moore
3 years ago
Reply to  Alf

I agree entirely. Why was picking up a bottle of wine, and potentially putting it back on the shelf, deemed less risky than picking up a book and replacing it? Schools and colleges were all closed, yet book purchasing was suddenly made almost prohibitive. I hope that as we open up, everyone will support our independent businesses and jettison the corporations that have cleaned up during the shutdown.
Thank you to Dante and his staff for keeping Northtown Books operational, in spite of the complex processes required to do so.

Hi
Guest
Hi
3 years ago
Reply to  Sue Moore

All of our local bookstores have been open, some offerring free delivery. As much as we dont want our local economy to worsen, we also dont want things closing because our local employees are ill.

The science is showing the longer we linger in one place the higher the chance of exposure, even in grocery stores. But especially in bookstores.
Thats the reason theyre saying opening beaches means walking or moving, no laying around. Unfortunately the spray of the waves crashing is a notorious carrier of bacteria and viruses as well so be mindful of that.

I really recommend looking up the journals and sites of virologists and RNA-cell interactions.
Look up who funds the projects you read about in any news outlet.
The antibody study at stanford had a spokesperson who teaches militarism. He was quoted as a prof which is true but they led the reader to believe he was in medicine. Not who you want explaining medical issues. All I did was put his name in a search engine.

Stop the madness!
Guest
Stop the madness!
3 years ago
Reply to  Hi

Ocean spray is a disease vector?
Maybe corona can survive on the ocean all the way from china! If “science” is telling you that, “science” is lying. Try using some of your god given common sense, instead of bad “science”.

The Woman in the Green Shirt
Guest
The Woman in the Green Shirt
3 years ago
Reply to  Scooter

I won’t be eating at restaurants either, Scooter. They were never within my budget in the first place.

It’s upsetting to see the politicization of health measures, but Kym has provided a way for us to remain connected to our community here in the comments section, however impersonally, and your post humanizes the situation enough that I don’t really care what people think of me for wearing a mask.

Thank you. I needed reminding today, as I shelter in place for the third month and socialize only within my family unit, which consists of myself, my pets, and my houseplants.

It kind of sucks, but losing you and people like you would suck a lot worse. So would getting myself banned or having the comments section closed down.

Thank you, Kym. Thank you, regular commenters.

Farce
Guest
Farce
3 years ago

The Woman In The Green Shirt- Kindest comment I’ve read anywhere for days. Thank You! I will try to remember what you wrote and tone down my words. We are together in this situation…even while we stay apart

Guest
Guest
Guest
3 years ago
Reply to  Kym Kemp

Calling the strangling of buinesses that are based on socialization like restaurants, clubs and schools are not “inconveniences”. For the people who have such enterprises, the calling their life blood a matter of inconvenience by those not so inconvenienced” and therefore untouched, even prospering, is what is divisive.

The Real Brian
Guest
The Real Brian
3 years ago
Reply to  Scooter

Thank you Scooter.

I’m doing my part with a mask on, for you and others!

Swine
Guest
Swine
3 years ago
Reply to  The Real Brian

Oh thanks. You are saving my lifem youre a hero

Iwearmymaskinmycar
Guest
Iwearmymaskinmycar
3 years ago
Reply to  The Real Brian

Hey Brian, did you make this video?
Pretty catchy tune!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2DDXG-dHugc

In my 1911 I trust
Guest
In my 1911 I trust
3 years ago
Reply to  Scooter

Why would I go out to eat at a restaurant with a stupid mask on Scooter? Why would I spend my money on an experience like that? I can’t afford to eat out, so when I do, its a supposed to be a special experience for my wife and I. I want to look at my wife’s beautiful face while I eat, I also don’t want to hassle with whatever BS face mask rule they will come up with so we can eat in a restaurant. I can eat at home, save money, not have to deal with any weird bullshit rules, and I can look at my beautiful wife while we enjoy a meal. My point is the good experience of eating in a restaurant is gone for now. I won’t spend money on something like that.

Jesus, Chris
Guest
Jesus, Chris
3 years ago

If you don’t want to go out, don’t go out!

The idea that our government is inundating us with official drivel, is extremely tiresome! Promoting endless fear, has caused everyone undue stress, and, the forced isolation will ultimately cause the timeline of this infectious disease to be extended.

Forcing businesses to close, driving citizens to bankruptcy and possibly, starvation, restrictions on movement and, forcing the use of masks etc in public, all of this is completely unconstitutional, totally unprecedented, and, illegal.

Your government has acted well beyond it’s authority, and, has squandered resources to the point of no return. Governor Newsom has exhibited the worst of these traits, spending to rent hotel rooms that are going unoccupied, handing out cash to undocumented immigrants, giving medical care to one group while shutting down programs to others, maintaining salaries of school and public employees who are sheltering at home, while senior citizens are forced to report to work in schools…

The response of government has been an unmitigated mess of guesswork, phony news, and assumptions. The myriad violations of law by our governments, and the completely unconstitutional processes employed during this forced shutdown, these will come back to haunt in the form of very expensive lawsuits, extremely expensive exposures due to financial fallout and the failure of government to support the operation of adequate healthcare, will further erode resources into the future…

The loss of tax money, Social Security contributions, and general taxes on, heck, everything, will haunt the state and the counties for many years, and affect the futures of almost every citizen.

Fears, such as the ones expounded above, should not be used in the decision making process. Allowing fear to run the country, will cause an extended disaster, totally unrelated to being sick. Even President Tweety will tell you that recovered persons are necessary, and, are the real heroes here…

The population must be exposed, and, develop immunity. No vaccine is forthcoming.

Go forward, and store your fears. We can’t sit around and listen to the garbage spouted by these “health officers” any longer.

If you are old, or sick, make your own choices.

That’s freedom.

That’s appropriate.

FanOfGuest
Guest
FanOfGuest
3 years ago
Reply to  Jesus, Chris

Refuse. Resist. Eat local. Shop local. Shake hands. Give hugs. Doff your mask. Covid 19 is a virus. We are the experiment.

Guests
Guest
Guests
3 years ago
Reply to  FanOfGuest

Fan,
best in thread.
Thanks.

Free estimates
Guest
Free estimates
3 years ago
Reply to  FanOfGuest

The only thing to fear, is fear itself.

Please Check One
Guest
Please Check One
3 years ago
Reply to  Jesus, Chris

Thank you, very well said.

Jim Brickley
Guest
Jim Brickley
3 years ago
Reply to  Jesus, Chris

Say what you want about Newsom, fact is, the number of infections in California look pretty good compared to other States.

Zipline
Guest
Zipline
3 years ago

Your ignorant policies of shutting down business to protect a very few high risk individuals are destroying the economy. There are going to be no resturants to reopen. Those at risk need to take great care, everyone else needs to get on with life. Covid is going to be around for a long time with flare ups like the flu. Politicians and civil servants have killed the economy and are causing untold harm far exceeding anything the disease will. You should be very proud of yourselves.

Guests
Guest
Guests
3 years ago
Reply to  Zipline

Zip line,
agreed,
intelligent post.

Enough
Guest
Enough
3 years ago

Nothing new here. Same info rehashed ad nauseam.

I like science
Guest
I like science
3 years ago

You say we shouldn’t be motivated by fear of the virus, but then you promote fear of the government. And how in the heck do you know that there is no vaccine coming? Are you an epidemiologist with inside information from the dozens of pharmaceutical companies that are working on a vaccine? Your opinion is not fact. I am neither afraid of this virus nor the government, but I am afraid of people like you.

Jesus, Chris
Guest
Jesus, Chris
3 years ago
Reply to  I like science

There are vaccines in development, and in trials. They may even be in use, eventually.

It is probable that exposure and recovery will have become much more prevalent soon.

Fear of sensibility, is just as bad as the irrational random fear being generated by the news media, and the fear the government is promoting, in order to control everyone.

I don’t fear the virus, but we would be damned well advised to fear the government, and to fear the irrational response of many citizens…

I don’t really care what you fear, but we need to start demanding to think for ourselves, act in our own interests, and, we need to limit the stupid decisions of our government, and our “hired stooges”, like Dr Frankovich…

Guests
Guest
Guests
3 years ago
Reply to  Jesus, Chris

Jesus,
thanks.

Jesus, Chris
Guest
Jesus, Chris
3 years ago
Reply to  Guests

And:

Here’s the reason why an unassuming Pediatrician from Michigan might come to a backwoods county in Northern CA:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamandrzejewski/2020/05/19/why-california-is-in-trouble–340000-public-employees-with-100000-paychecks-cost-taxpayers-45-billion/#476462875fb8

Don’t fear the virus, fear inaction, and, fear the government…

Mike
Guest
Mike
3 years ago

When my kids get older and ask what happened in 2020 my response will be, it all started with 2019 with Jeffery Epstein and everything after that was a distraction from the fact that our political leaders are rapists.

Papa Wheelies
Guest
Papa Wheelies
3 years ago
Reply to  Mike

https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/05/19/coronavirus-covid-19-international-flights-jfk-airport-newark-airport-korea-china-italy/

Would you keep flying people into the USA, if you were trying to prevent the second wave?

Or ensuring that it will happen.

All this sacrifice for WHAT?

GUARANTEED RISE IN THE STATISTICS?

DivideByZero
Guest
DivideByZero
3 years ago

So Doc., how about giving us the age of that second individual that succumbed to C-19?

DivideByZero
Guest
DivideByZero
3 years ago
Reply to  DivideByZero

Oh I forgot to mention, “very elderly” is not a number.

covifd
Guest
covifd
3 years ago

This lady is a fraud, i don’t listen to anything she has said.
This entire quarantine, i have left my house and done whatever i wanted, i refuse to change any of my routines.
This covid false flag is nothing more than democrats throwing a fit hoping to shutdown the country because they cannot win an election. what a total joke.

Nicehorsey
Guest
Nicehorsey
3 years ago
Reply to  covifd

100,000 dead don’t feel it’s a joke.

Mitch Trachtenberg
Guest
3 years ago

This has been politicized by everyone, it seems. Nonetheless, there are a few straightforward facts.

There is a long period where people are infected but have no symptoms. They are shedding the virus during this period, meaning they can infect others, and the period lasts at least a week.

This virus is wildly infectious, far more than most of us are used to. If it can spread, it will spread.

The mortality rate for those infected is ten times greater, minimum, than the mortality rate from the flu.

There is a lot of evidence accumulating that the virus harms organs other than the lungs, and the damage it causes may be long term. There’s also a bit of evidence that in rare cases it causes childhood illnesses.

Wearing masks is not political, it is a recognition that masks will help you NOT spread the virus if you happen to be infected and not showing symptoms. In addition, wearing a mask will keep you from breathing in large but semi-invisible particles that are put out when other people speak or cough or sneeze. Depending on the materials you use and how tight a fit you manage, wearing a mask may even filter out most individual viral particles. Google “Suay Sew Shop Mask” for really good information on masks.

Keeping six feet between you and those not in your household will also help you from getting or passing the virus. It is not political, it is just a reality that speaking pushes the virus farther into the air than many people realize, and breathing in virus shed by other people’s lungs is a common way that this spreads.

The best source of information on the virus, in my opinion, is Chris Martenson, someone who a lot of people consider just another internet nut. I think, obviously, they are wrong. He has been putting out a daily internet video at his site and on youtube since, I think, early February. His description, months ago, of the way the virus would appear in a community was “case, case, cluster, cluster, BOOM!” That is, you get an individual case or two, then clusters, then you’re into an explosion of cases in any given community.

Just sayin'
Guest
Just sayin'
3 years ago

Uh… Duh. Literally every model shown for this is a bell curve of standardized distribution. They told us to shelter in place so we could flatten the curve. Get it? Bro, take a beginner stastics course and come back to the conversation.

Mitch Trachtenberg
Guest
3 years ago
Reply to  Just sayin'

Perhaps you could explain your point. Are you saying that because you’ve seen a bell curve you believe local infections will decline now? I think that would be a misunderstanding. Others have described this as the second inning. A bell curve showing a decline in NYC or nationally tells you nothing about what will happen in Humboldt, because we’ve yet to have an explosion of cases.

Papa Wheelies
Guest
Papa Wheelies
3 years ago

If we are economically shut down, Mitch, why keep these international flights from hot spots?

https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/05/19/coronavirus-covid-19-international-flights-jfk-airport-newark-airport-korea-china-italy/

Mitch Trachtenberg
Guest
3 years ago
Reply to  Papa Wheelies

I have no idea, Papa. I have said what facts I think I can, and attempted to avoid politics. My politics may not reflect yours, but I think the facts I’ve pointed out would survive politics in a normal, sane environment.

Personally, I’d take what actions I could take to protect myself and my community, that didn’t cause me major grief. I don’t think wearing a mask and trying to maintain a six foot separation is major grief.

I haven’t expressed an opinion on the economic shutdown or the skill with which this is being handled at the local, state, federal, and international levels. I’ve just stated some theoretically uncontroversial facts.

Papa Wheelies
Guest
Papa Wheelies
3 years ago

I guess I was just wondering aloud why we are still allowing flights from overseas if there is still a grave threat…doesn’t make sense.

My politics are libertarian. Freedom, independent minded and the individual pursuit of happiness.

I don’t like what I am seeing From our people who hold the purse strings, giving the tax money to the multi national corporation, instead of the working class people who are being thrown under the bus.

Cheers

Just sayin'
Guest
Just sayin'
3 years ago

No. I’m referring to the entire process. It will be “case, case, cluster, cluster, BOOM!” because that is the building of the bell curve. Then we will reach an apex, and the reverse will occur. You’re acting like this Chris Martenson is some kind of genius. He’s not. He’s merely explaining in a sensationalized way how standard distribution statistical models work. The point is we don’t know where we are on the bell curve right now. No one does. But the process will occur similarly, none the less. Regardless of locale.

Mitch Trachtenberg
Guest
3 years ago
Reply to  Just sayin'

It’s an exponential curve which flattens once people have noticed the BOOM, because at that point most people engage in increased mitigation, because the danger is self-evident. As long as there is a population which has no immunity to a new infectious agent, the growth will be exponential in the beginning. We are used to thinking mostly about linear growth, where 1 becomes 2 becomes 3 becomes 4. In exponential growth, 1 becomes 2 becomes 4 becomes 8. That is, things get out of control quickly.

You “flatten the curve” by engaging in mitigation, so that instead of each infected person potentially infecting (say) two more people, each infection on average infects closer to one. An outbreak ends when, on average, each infected person infects fewer than one new person. Mitigation just means lowering the odds that the virus can jump from one person to another. (The only other way things end is that most people can no longer be made sick, because they have antibodies from a vaccination or from some previous exposure, and their immune system fights off the virus when they are exposed.)

At this point, there’s been no BOOM in Southern Humboldt. But the problem is that spread takes place before anyone even notices that there are infections in an area. In Eureka, they are now at cluster stage. If there is a cluster of people showing symptoms, you can reliably expect that there is a substantial base of already-infected individuals who will begin to show symptoms over the next several days. That is the potential BOOM.

US 101 runs through Humboldt, so the potential for new infections is always present, and a single infected person will cause either nothing — if there is good mitigation around them — or cluster, cluster, BOOM.

Just sayin'
Guest
Just sayin'
3 years ago

“It’s an exponential curve which flattens once people have noticed the BOOM, because at that point most people engage in increased mitigation, because the danger is self-evident. ”

No it isn’t. It is a exponential curve that peaks when the number of infected people reaches a saturation point (the apex). Because there are no more to infect, then it regresses exponentially. The apex or peak of the wave is an unknown but a constant. Let’s call this ‘y’. So y is the result of an unknown function, we’ll use sin(x) for illustrative purposes. Mitigation will affect the point at which we reach the apex, not the value of the apex (y). So y=sin(x+(mitigation factor)) over a period of time (usually represented by π).

I know it doesn’t have a catchy phrase like “cluster, cluster, BOOM,” but this is a realistic model of how things will work out. If you’re worried about 101 being a transport vector, look at Mendocino. Much less infections so far with a higher population and closer proximity to a larger population center. Or look at all the other counties that border I-5. Surely there would have been your “boom.” It didn’t happen. I’m not interested in any more of your catch phrases and pseudo science. Bring some real math/science to the table bud, or stay over on loco in the emotional-appeal and fear-based echo chambers.

Mitch Trachtenberg
Guest
3 years ago
Reply to  Just sayin'

As far as I’m aware, there is no place in the United States where the number of infected people has reached a “saturation point” with the possible exception of NYC. As far as I’m aware, the saturation point is around 70% infected, possibly higher.

We’ve been fortunate in California because mitigation was taken early and hard; it was too late in NY for NYC.

It is the second inning, because mitigation only works when it is happening. If you have reason to believe that Humboldt’s low density will protect it, I’d be interested in hearing it. Personally, I think Humboldt was protected by Gavin Newsom.

You are describing the curve where a disease fiddles out due to lack of new fuel. If its spread is suppressed in that situation, yes, it will take longer to play out, lowering the ultimate death rate by increasing hospital and ICU availability. If the suppression is sufficient that R0 drops below 1, the curve will drop with plenty of fuel remaining.

We are the fuel. It is therefore still available.

“Case, case, cluster, cluster, BOOM” is the best straightforward description of exponential growth I’ve heard. I’m sorry you don’t like it. If you don’t agree with Martenson, that’s fine, but you could explain why.

If you think any of the “uncontroversial facts” I provided above are not accurate, you could explain why. If you think there is no point in mask usage, or six feet of separation, you could explain why.

Once again, I’m trying to leave politics entirely aside. I’m just stating what I understand to be facts. So if you know of errors I am spreading, or context that I’ve left out, I’ll be grateful for your correction(s), despite your attitude.

Just sayin'
Guest
Just sayin'
3 years ago

Nowhere in the u.s. has reached the saturation point. It will take months more for it to occur BECAUSE people are sheltering in place. NYC is not at saturation either. Cases will continue to rise because more have to be infected in order for their immune systems to be exposed and create antibodies.

We were not hit less hard because of mitigation measures. It’s called population density. SF and LA are wayyyyy less dense than NYC. They also kept the Subway open which was a huge transport vector for this disease. They also put known infected patients in nursing homes with compromised individuals. NYC will recover faster because more people have been exposed, resulting in more early deaths; but reaching the apex more quickly ( resulting in a narrow bell curve). Look at the rest of northern California; 12 deaths in the entirety of the north state excluding the bay. I’d say population density has a LOT to do with it.

We have already waited long enough so that more people could be treated with increased ICU beds, etc. This is now not a factor in how many mortalities there will be. Mortalities will be dependent on the hosts biological make-up and existing co-morbidities.

“If the suppression is sufficient that R0 drops below 1, the curve will drop with plenty of fuel remaining.

We are the fuel. It is therefore still available.”

So, you negated your own argument. On to the next error…

“Once again, I’m trying to leave politics entirely aside. I’m just stating what I understand to be facts. (… earlier) Personally, I think Humboldt was protected by Gavin Newsom.”

So you’re trying to leave politics aside…not!

You have not given me “uncontroversial facts.” You are repeating the opinions of other people that are smarter than you. There are no original ideas present in any of your arguments. My tone is curt because I am getting real sick of the “faux intellectualism” that you and others are promoting. You do no independent research. You repeat talking points with catch phrases that sound smart, but are not. Keep your head in the echo chamber pal. It’s way more comfortable in there.

Mitch Trachtenberg
Guest
3 years ago
Reply to  Just sayin'

So you have no interest in explaining to me or any other reader why any of the facts I laid out are wrong. Just some mystery about how I negated my own argument, and some snide comment that I didn’t personally discover any of those uncontroversial facts. No, I didn’t. Does *anyone* think I am a COVID-19 researcher, or the world’s only COVID-19 researcher, and that I’ve chosen Redheaded Blackbelt to announce my discoveries? (I’m not, I’m not, I didn’t.)

You are correct. By saying that “Personally, I think Humboldt was protected by Gavin Newsom” I injected politics. It was a mistake to share that opinion in the context of the “uncontroversial facts.”

Thanks for the dialog. I am open to being educated, but not to being insulted, so I’m done with it. Have a nice day, bro’, bud, pal.

Mitch Trachtenberg
Guest
3 years ago

I should add that “Just sayin'” brings up population density, and I’m sure that plays some role in how rapidly infections spread. It plays some role, but I don’t know that it is controlling.

If it turns out that places like Southern Humboldt and rural Mendocino have so little natural interpersonal contact that infections, even wildly infectious ones, never get out of control locally, that will be great to know. I don’t think we know that, at least not yet. If there’s data that shows it, I hope our public health officials are aware of that data.

Just sayin'
Guest
Just sayin'
3 years ago

I did point out why you were mistaken. In detail, point by point. If you can’t understand it, I can help you, but my time isn’t free. If you want to pay me to tutor you, my rate is $80/hr. I’d be happy to take your money. You seem to have a problem with discerning opinion from “uncontroversial fact.” Have a good day, yourself. But, I’m not your buddy, guy…

Wake up and smell the constitution
Guest
Wake up and smell the constitution
3 years ago

If you want to stay home then stay home…. these businesses should not have to ask permission, all businesses have a right to open, this is not a priviledge like these pos democrats want you to think, this is not China or Russia!

Guests
Guest
Guests
3 years ago

Wake up and smell the constitution,
Thanks,
well said.

Papa Wheelies
Guest
Papa Wheelies
3 years ago

How would one make the USA into a country more like Russia or China?

Something to think about.

One clue, those pesky global foundations…

All that Charity work, education planning, and world health.

What could go wrong?

thetallone
Guest
thetallone
3 years ago

While you are smelling the constitution, you might also be inhaling viral particles that can spread to the rest of us.

Zipline
Guest
Zipline
3 years ago

Darwin should be allowed to prevail.

Faithful
Guest
Faithful
3 years ago

An interesting Twitter thread re Hydroxycloroqiune and the media, by Scott Adams, creator of Dilbert comic and very bright dude.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1262786448685588480

Guests
Guest
Guests
3 years ago

Nice, the county us opening up,
good job.

DivideByZero
Guest
DivideByZero
3 years ago

Nineteen fifties: mumps, measles, chicken pox, let them get while they’re young and build immunity. (I had all three as did most kids)

Two thousand twenty: run, hide, be afraid, we’re all going to die. The virus, the virus, it’s everywhere.

What a pitiful cabal of ill informed, frightened, light weights. You don’t deserve the liberty you inherited. Now go back to your T.V.s and cower in fear. Don’t forget your depends so you can manage your waste while some bimbo on your “truth” box brings you the latest “news”.

Free estimates
Guest
Free estimates
3 years ago
Reply to  DivideByZero

“What a pitiful cabal of ill informed, frightened, light weights. You don’t deserve the liberty you inherited.”

Exactly. These people have had all of their battles fought for them and now do not have the skills necessary to fight back, nor the wherewithal to even understand why they should be resisting such situations.

I talked to my grandmother last month who is 93. She survived all of those diseases you listed as well as a scarlet fever outbreak when she was a child. I asked her how people dealt with widespread disease in a time when radio was the only way to give large amounts of people information. She said that a doctor would come to the house and check if anyone was infected. If there was one person in a household who was positive, the house would be marked as such on the front door and the family was quarantined. Extended family or neighbors would bring them groceries and supplies.

They did not lock down the healthy. They knew people had to support their families. Especially after already surviving the great depression. Pertinent lessons to be learned.

Guest
Guest
Guest
3 years ago

As what Dr, Frankovich, older people are especially vulnerable. Instead of shutting down businesses in such broad but micro management way, playing on that need, way more value would have been to focus on protecting those people with money and staff with requirements for them to be successful in keeping it out long term. Covid was introduced in the the assisted living facility while stringent requirements were in place. So, given a portion of the population ignores these orders anyway, and these orders did not protect these facilities, why oh why would any health organization insist on keeping on with them or in fact expecting them to work better while making them less stringent ? Some reality, not just theoretical best practices, must be part of the planning for at least a year and likely longer than that because the same lack of response in older people’s immuninity system to the disease itself will likely mean that a vaccine when it comes along will not be so good at preventing them from getting ill either. The casinos will open. People will go to them.

The economy can not be suppressed that long without a massive change in our expectations of what resources are available from taxes. The demand for social services will inevitably increase and the resources to pay for them decrease as the economy squeezes down. This is not “inconvenience”. This is results.

Unless we are very, very lucky, the covid vaccine will need a long improvement period after its introduction just like the flu vaccine did. Those who are old enough and got the first flu vaccines might remember that they were hard on the body. This is not just an immediate issue but one that will be evolving for a decade. We best think ahead and not let the current fears create an even worse outcome than necessary.

guest
Guest
guest
3 years ago

This whole thing has made sense since the start! NOT

Swine
Guest
Swine
3 years ago

Huhm funny.. Still nothing about how to stay healthy.. What a fuckin joke

Peg Jacobs
Guest
Peg Jacobs
3 years ago

When can the furniture stores open for home deliveries?

Not Jesus
Guest
Not Jesus
3 years ago

It is worth knowing that the people who comment here are not representative of the population of this country. MOST of us support the stay at home orders, even at our own economic peril. Most of us want to protect the vulnerable. Most of us are willing to wait til there is effective treatment or a vaccine, which by the way most of us will be willing to take.
Sleep well, stay safe, wear your mask, wash your hands. Love your neighbors as yourselves.

Readbetweenthelines
Guest
Readbetweenthelines
3 years ago
Reply to  Not Jesus

Half this country will refuse the vaccine.

In my 1911 I trust
Guest
In my 1911 I trust
3 years ago
Reply to  Not Jesus

You would allow a fast tracked vaccine of an attenuated virus, or RNA, or DNA to be injected into you by a gov’t that has never had our best interests at heart? Think about that for a minute. For me, if the vaccine is RNA or DNA, hell no. If its an attenuated version of covid-19 then I’m going to wait till a few hundred million Americans have taken it first. People forget that the first versions of many vaccines are extremely rough on the body, if not just as bad as the disease itself. My grandpa got a flu shot when they first started coming out when he was deployed over the Cuban Missile Crisis, it was for the swine flu, he was the sickest he had ever been in his life. The “attenuated” version obviously wasn’t very attenuated.

Just sayin'
Guest
Just sayin'
3 years ago
Reply to  Not Jesus

Hey doggo. Still don’t agree, but enjoy your new handle! I know you’re not Jesus. Errr…. Chuchito. That’s my sister’s boyfriend. Loving you, brother!

name
Guest
name
3 years ago

look up exponential ..bro

RedWoods
Guest
RedWoods
3 years ago

DEATHS FROM COVID 71,339

DEATHS FROM PNEUMONIA 88,578

DEATHS FROM ALL CAUSES 917,014

If you are worried about COVID maybe you should really be worried about the other 845,000 + deaths FROM other causes that can kill you. Let everybody have their lives & businesses back again and let the high risk people wear their mask & quiver in fear “sheltering in place” in their house !

If this virus was a bad as claimed they would be ordering everyone to use the N95 or better medical grade masks NOT the very limited protection of the cloth masks. IF we were dealing with Ebola or like disease I’ll bet they wouldn’t be making the same order. I think its dangerous to make people think those cloth masks are really much of a protection from the virus. They are sneeze guards & not much more.

Those COVID numbers DON’T justify all the damage done. I’m old & a high risk person & haven’t changed my daily work routines at home our on our other property. No hiding in the house or wearing a mask outside for me I’m outside breathing clean air cutting firewood & other jobs on the place!

600 doctors came out & call this insane shutdown a mass casualty incident. Its about time the medical people consider all the obvious damage caused by the overreaction to this virus. More people are dead from Pneumonia than the COVID virus according to todays CDC info.

Maybe some expert could comment on why the virus number in Humboldt have increased AFTER the mask insanity was ordered.