After Yesterday’s 5.6, USGS Warns Be Ready For More Quakes
Be ready for more earthquakes
- More earthquakes than usual (called aftershocks) will continue to occur near the mainshock.
- When there are more earthquakes, the chance of a large earthquake is greater which means that the chance of damage is greater.
- The USGS advises everyone to be aware of the possibility of aftershocks, especially when in or around vulnerable structures such as unreinforced masonry buildings.
- This earthquake could be part of a sequence. An earthquake sequence may have larger and potentially damaging earthquakes in the future, so remember to: Drop, Cover, and Hold on.
What we think will happen next
According to our forecast, over the next 1 Week there is a < 1 % chance of one or more aftershocks that are larger than magnitude 5.6. It is likely that there will be smaller earthquakes over the next 1 Week, with 0 to 11 magnitude 3 or higher aftershocks. Magnitude 3 and above are large enough to be felt near the epicenter. The number of aftershocks will drop off over time, but a large aftershock can increase the numbers again, temporarily.
More details about the earthquake forecast are provided in the section “Our detailed aftershock forecast” below.
About this earthquake and related aftershocks
So far in this sequence there have been 0 magnitude 3 or higher earthquakes, which are strong enough to be felt, and 0 magnitude 5 or higher earthquakes, which are large enough to do damage.
Our detailed aftershock forecast
The USGS estimates the chance of more aftershocks as follows: Within the next 1 Week until 2019-06-30 04:50:00 (UTC):
- The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 3 or higher is 65 %, and it is most likely that as few as 0 or as many as 11 such earthquakes may occur in the case that the sequence is re-invigorated by a larger aftershock.
- The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 5 or higher is 2 %, such an earthquake is possible but with a low probability.
- The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 6 or higher is 1 in 500, such an earthquake is possible but with a low probability.
- The chance of an earthquake of magnitude 7 or higher is 1 in 5,000, such an earthquake is possible but with a low probability.
About our earthquake forecasts
No one can predict the exact time or place of any earthquake, including aftershocks. Our earthquake forecasts give us an understanding of the chances of having more earthquakes within a given time period in the affected area. We calculate this earthquake forecast using a statistical analysis based on past earthquakes.
Our forecast changes as time passes due to decline in the frequency of aftershocks, larger aftershocks that may trigger further earthquakes, and changes in forecast modeling based on the data collected for this earthquake sequence.
This forecast was issued: 2019-06-23 04:42:06 (UTC)
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Think I will go out to sea for awhile.
Can I come?
It Is a California thing.
And an Oklahoma thing now too because of fracking.
Are you really E. Jean Carroll, or merely stealing her name? Inquiring minds want to know…
Care to weigh in on this, Kym?
I would guess it is satirical reference as I highly doubt a well-known New York writer is reading and commenting here. S/he was put on moderation earlier today.
differant type of ground shaking from fracking. if you really want to see human caused quakes just check out all the quakes caused by calpine .so many that they are no longet reporting them.
🕯🌳👍🏽👍🏽Thank you Kym for the information and links.
🕯🌳Good morning Kym. 🌞
Rock & roll 🌏🧡
Shook the cabin in Harris.
Thank you for the informative article Kim. House was really shaking in Loleta last night and sustained for at least a couple of minutes. Good reminder of what’s important and how fragile our little way of life is.
Oh the too familiar feeling of the holding of the breath at the beginning of a quake to see if it builds or dies down before taking action. It like a flow chart- is it getting worse? Do I move or ride it out? If I move, is it safer or more dangerous? Luckily for me, only once a quake lasted long enough (really about 3 minutes rather than only a few seconds that seemed like minutes) to me to resolve the questions before it stopped.
The best defense is to have already put restraints on bookshelves, child proof latches on infrequently used cabinets, hold putty on breakables on shelves, earthquake picture hooks, etc before a quake hits.
Seated at my computer and felt the shock wave. Nothing inside happened except a small crack in the floor in the garage. Did not feel a second shock. But maybe because I am in the East side of Eureka. It is 8pm Sunday and no aftershocks so far.
There was a 3.3 aftershock a couple hours ago
Shake, rattle, roller in Carlotta.
Stop drop an roll one….
It was a roller here on Humboldt Hill and lasted for about 20 seconds no damage but brought the family out of the bedrooms.
It didn’t bring my family out. Hubby slept through it (In Miranda). However, it brought the vocal powers of both our Doxie mixed breed and our Pug into full swing. For anyone in the Miranda area who heard weird dog like howls, it was our two.
It’s sad to me that due to the horrible state of briceland road, I didn’t feel such a large quake between dodging all the potholes. Holy moly! I feel really sorry for all the people that have to drive that road daily, I drove it once and it took life off my car. Like, I will now need cv joints and shocks much faster than I would of had I stayed off that road. So many people live out there, our main tourist attraction is out there and our economy is shit and the county can’t take all this pot money and fix a dam road so that people don’t have their cars in the shop more than on the road. I’m glad there wasn’t any major damage or injuries in the quake! Hey Humboldt County- Fix the damn roads, maybe I could tell the difference between a strong quake and regular driving on briceland’s pits and holes
No they would rather repave sections of highway repeatedly… 😑
Been waiting for TSHTF for awhile. Maybe we will get the big one and wake up all these weak cal-libs to a reality check. Free government cheese at your nearest FEMA camp. Statistically the greater LA area will be out of drinking water in less than 12 hours. After that, chaos will reign and humans will get real ugly, real quick.
Some humans already are real ugly, your “weak cal-libs” insult and judgemental user name being a case in point.
I live in Laytonville and the dogs started barking and I tried to get up to look outside and all the sudden I am on a roller coaster. I literally couldn’t stand up until the rolling stopped and then the dogs and I just stared at each other for a minute or so wondering if that was it or not. Didn’t knock anything off the walls but my hanging plants were sure swinging for a few minutes. First it rolled and then ended with a big shake. I could tell it was at least a 5 but it being so far away was odd for how strong it felt.
I hope you enter this on DYFI (did you feel it) … What a great description. Sounds like your dogs felt the P-wave and let you know it was coming.
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/data/dyfi/
funny havent seen anything on news on tv at all (im in so calif by bakersfield) only on internet and because i follow earthquakes on caltech website map found out about this.
My husband and I were at AW Way Campground, Petrolia with some friends standing when we heard a rumble then it hit. Legs moved like gumby and everyone in the place were in an uproar. Was a wild experience for sure.
We’re was it centered at ?
We’re was it centered at?
One was 18 miles SW of Rio Dell and the other was right close there were two that hit at the same time a 5.4 and a 5.6