Cultivators Need to Grow Less Cannabis, Says Sac Bee Article

Marijuana mountain

Marijuana intended for the black market. [Photo provided by the Humboldt County Sheriff’s Department from a raid in 2015]

“California is growing so much marijuana it could crash the market,” reports the Sacramento Bee in an article that posted online this morning.

The article bases much of its information on a projection of the 2019 harvest produced by Vessel Logistics, a cannabis distribution company. The article says that the research done by Vessel Logistics…

…found that more than 1,142 acres of cannabis farms hold state permits. They can produce up to 9 million pounds of crop every year, but the permitted wholesale market can realistically support 1.8 million to 2.2 million pounds.

“Thus, even when a 50 percent cut in production is accounted for, a significant oversupply is unavoidable in 2019,” the report concluded.

Or, as the founder of Vessel Logistics pointed out in the article, “[Cultivators] need to grow less. …. If they grow like they’re used to growing … the products are going to be selling for less than the cost of production.”

The article argues that those trying to become white market producers are going to find it increasingly difficult to offload excess product through the black market as the state’s track and trace program becomes more functional.

Does cannabis need subsidies? Maybe smokers could smoke more…? Or, maybe, just maybe, there should have been a cap on the size of grows until 2023 as was originally promised?

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Willie Caso-Mayhem
Guest
5 years ago

🕯Well Colorado was looking to buy some. They seemed to have fallen short on supply.

Joe dirt
Guest
Joe dirt
5 years ago

Governor Gavin Newsom’s plan on, sending the National Guard into Northern California. To help with what they are saying or cartel grows. With the blessing of senator Mike McGuire, and Sheriff William hansell. It’s unclear weather they are just going to do trespass grows, are what their restrictions are going to be. Most likely there will be quite a bit of heavily-armed military troops assaulting your neighborhood and mine

LostCoastEMP
Guest
LostCoastEMP
5 years ago
Reply to  Joe dirt

Yes Gavin newsome. Spend 25 million to let in more illegals so you can bust them for cartel grows later. Fukn moron

groba dude trustafarian osnt
Guest
groba dude trustafarian osnt
5 years ago

It seems sure, that soon, you will able to buy some very cheap bud! Like I always say, a pound of great flower at Whole Foods in Yuba City, $1.98…

It seems like not everyone should be trying to grow a shit-load of weed, as a method of survival, but the convoys of rigs traveling in and out of Humboldt/Mendo/Trinity/Lake probably carry significant quantities to other areas where production is lower, like the campuses of Massachusetts, New Jersey etc. And at high profit.

So run what you brung. Just keep on planting more shit! Let’s see where it all goes, and, if YOU go broke, don’t come whining!

Be sure to get all attendant permits, obey all those laws and pay your taxes, now!

Legallettuce
Guest
Legallettuce
5 years ago

We should have a burn party. Not as a protest more of a celebration. To think we can grow so much weed we can devastate an industry, lol. Times have changed Billy that article is a part of the fear and smear campaign. My product sells for $80 dollars a gram at a dispensary. 80, Billy, a gram! That is what politicians and corporations fear. Some hill podunk in an old beat up truck work’in out of a shed can produce a product they cannot cost benefit analysis their asses to make. Cheating the consumer Billy it ain’t right. Now remember I make a recreational product that test extremely well 😋 so I can make another product free to patient. I think our burn party should be on the spring equinox, never understood that whole 4/20 crap.

Taurusballzhoff
Guest
Taurusballzhoff
5 years ago
Reply to  Legallettuce

I like the idea for a burn party though. Unfortunately, I cannot attend, since smoking pot makes me dizzy and causes me to think obsessively about every stupid thing I ever did… Then I have to go wash the car or focus on some mundane task for several hours!

Not interested in getting “high” any more. You enjoy though!

I am glad your silly flower brings so much money, but, like lots of people, I just don’t need any at all.

If I did, I would just grow some myself, and I recommend that everyone else do the same. It is a common weed, after all.

Sleepy Alligator
Guest
Sleepy Alligator
5 years ago
Reply to  Legallettuce

“Cheating the consumer Billy it ain’t right”

Yet you claim that your product sells for $80 a gram. I’d say $80 a gram is cheating the consumer wouldn’t you legallettuce?

tax payer
Guest
tax payer
5 years ago

no this article does not offer nearly all options. they clearly have an agenda. they could lower taxes on pot and they could let farmers sell untrimmed weed. did you know you can buy a pound of tobacco for about twenty three dollars

Sharpen your pencil
Guest
Sharpen your pencil
5 years ago
Reply to  tax payer

Because they are the same thing….. You twits really enjoy comparing ford focuses and M3’s!

Dan F
Guest
Dan F
5 years ago

All that does NOT help a bit when it’s still classified as Schedule 1 on the Federal level which means it can’t legally be shipped out of Ca to say Co instead!!! Not while it is STILL Illegal on the federal level!!!

Sparkelmahn
Guest
Sparkelmahn
5 years ago
Reply to  Dan F

Again with those pesky, stinkin’ facts.

lotta wordsworth
Guest
lotta wordsworth
5 years ago
Reply to  Dan F

Is it time to see what the commerce clause of the us constitution means?

Central HumCo
Guest
5 years ago

No. No. It’s time to delete comments that might lead any one to facts. Or, God forbid, suggest we mount a resistance to tyranny.

Tired of your crap, Kym.

The Real Brian
Guest
The Real Brian
5 years ago
Reply to  Central HumCo

Please define “mount a resistance tyranny”.

Because when I hear you say that I think you want the FCC to investigate SNL and Alec Baldwin for ties to Russia.

Conservatism Is Corruption 🐘💰👈🏼🇷🇺
Guest
Conservatism Is Corruption 🐘💰👈🏼🇷🇺
5 years ago
Reply to  The Real Brian

LMFAO! 📺😆🤣😂😅😁

Did you see Deplorable Don’s moronic Twitter tirade against an SNL RERUN?!!!? Pathetic. 🏌️👈🏼💩🔥. #SummerZervos

itsthebearj
Guest
itsthebearj
5 years ago

we need Kym to document the areas decent into poverty/tyranny via prop 64

Monopoly in the name of liberalism… what a crock of crony capitalist bs…

I like free markets, you know, like it was ten years ago up there

Sheesh
Guest
5 years ago
Reply to  Dan F

When freedom is outlawed.
Only outlaws are free…

Bob
Guest
Bob
5 years ago
Reply to  Sheesh

Sheesh great comment!!! Spoken like a true outlaw.

Loon
Guest
Loon
5 years ago

So do I hear import export on the table? This state isn’t looking for tax money. If we could export to states that haven’t enough …. Whats with Cali any way? Backwards bywater I’d say…..

Lynn H
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Lynn H
5 years ago
Reply to  Loon

Yeah. We have heard export clues. Altria (who owns Marlboro) has invested 1.8 million in Cronos, a Canadian company.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/07/investing/altria-cronos-investment-marijuana/index.html
“Investing in Cronos Group as our exclusive partner in the emerging global cannabis category represents an exciting new growth opportunity for Altria,” said Howard Willard, Altria’s CEO, in a statement.”

They’ve probably invested quite a bit in California permits as well. Quite a few permitted distributors in Humboldt county are unidentifiable LLCs registered in Delaware. Some of them might be placeholders for future business activity. Probably the same in other counties.

It’s all in place, unfortunately.

The Real Brian
Guest
The Real Brian
5 years ago

The Vessel Logistics report concluded that because the cannabis industry in California has over-relied on both the black market and out-of-state sales, producers and manufacturers over-estimated the actual wholesale demand in the state.

That’s not the half of it, and likely a grossly inaccurate statement.

The projected tax revenues are already less than half of what was expected by the state.

The amount of online advertising and subtle hints by investment managers regarding pot stocks is crazy.

Had anyone been half honest or 1/4 smart in the hallways of tax-revenue-projection than this article would have been old news.

Producers and manufacturers who are still at it are relying on the drug war market, as the article states.

The Real Brian
Guest
The Real Brian
5 years ago
Reply to  The Real Brian

POT STOCK DOWN!

Cronos Group reports $11.6 million net loss, CEO warns of ‘big shortage situation’

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/cronos-group-reports-116-million-net-loss-in-q-4-as-revenue-rises-122230099.html

Willow Creeker
Guest
Willow Creeker
5 years ago

Wow I didn’t see this coming AT ALL. Haha
Like Sheriff Downey said- legalization is doing way more than CAMP ever did to get the growers out of the hills. True words.

BAHAHA
Guest
BAHAHA
5 years ago
Reply to  Willow Creeker

word. see ya flat hats.

some peoples children
Guest
some peoples children
5 years ago
Reply to  Willow Creeker

i have found if you have to say ‘ true words’ or ‘facts” one or both of the following are true… you are full of crap or you are not smart

Local
Guest
Local
5 years ago

Well nobody’s regulating where any of it goes so everyone will just sell out of state like last year is what I’m guessing problem solved lol

Littlefish
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Littlefish
5 years ago

Lol yourself it’s $100/oz in Illinois all the way up, dude.

Willow Creeker
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Willow Creeker
5 years ago
Reply to  Littlefish

And that sir is the difference between white market and black market.

BAHAHA
Guest
BAHAHA
5 years ago

Learn from OR. “White Market”, oh that’s fresh.

Skeptic
Guest
Skeptic
5 years ago

Still paying over $2k at dispensaries in the bay area….BECAUSE the rules have thwarted legal sales. It’s a joke, and it’s on us.
Growers are sitting on deteriorating pounds they have no ability to pass on to distributors because of expired permits. It will be WORTHLESS by the time the paperwork is done.
They will likely not be able to grow next season because they won’t have the sq ft money for dumboldt

Anne D.
Guest
Anne D.
5 years ago
Reply to  Skeptic

Down on the bayou I still get 2K…
In the big easy for a unit of Grade A..
But whatever you do or say..
Don’t let em catch you anywhere along the way…
Cuz they’ll still burn you down…
In a west Texas town..
Never again to see the sunlight of day..

Small Fry
Guest
Small Fry
5 years ago

This is obviously by design. WTO trade policies have been doing this kind of garbage to bankrupt small farmers for years. It happened in the soybean market, the corn market, dairy, you name it. The name of the game is to produce lots of product at less than cost, suplement by regulations, subsidies.. and put the competition out of business.. But in this case, like most of these underhanded businesse tactics, it back fired on them.. because instead of flooding out the “Original Market” they just strengthened the “Original” and shafted the “legal”..
Now the state wants to whine about “too much cannabis” when they were supposed to keep acreage at an acre or less to begin with.. and that’s a lot. I feel like in Humboldt it should have been capped at 10,000sq ft… especially in hills without pavement or grid access. Personally, I think it’s responsible to cap sq. Footage in the hills. And think about going bigger in towns, (where people are ok with it, many are not, why push it on them?) If they would have capped the canopy size from the beginning, they would have less erroneous details to have to enforce.. If they would have kept the square footage small, people would be more inclined to stay in the local state market..
And let’s face it.. the gov. Already is regulating the “size” of the grows with this pyramid scheme of different “tiers”..
And it’s absolutely ridiculous to say people can not come together and grow as a collective and not for profits on some sort of level.. There are still many people, who don’t have land and a crap ton of money, and actually do use cannabis for therapeutic measures. With in certain zoning or acreages, and that should be reasonable. And people shouldn’t be fined, or loose thier property Because of it. Nor should on have to “pay” the Waterboard for providing absolutely no service.
And honestly, I think they should Tax bigger grows more.. If they made a reasonable scale of taxing small folks less and bigger folks more, that might encourage farmers to grow less.. Bigger farmers have more of an impact, on roads and services.. why shouldn’t they pay more? And also, a fluctuating tax scale.. let’s say one year, the market is bad, and one doesn’t use all 10,000 square ft. So, less tax.. the next, things look up.. use more square ft… more tax… something like that..
With that said.. the taxes are erroneous to high, and it backfired on them, now they want to blame the Original Farmers, and that is completely corrupt…

It's a Farce
Guest
It's a Farce
5 years ago
Reply to  Small Fry

Well said! Thank you for paying attention!

hmm
Guest
hmm
5 years ago
Reply to  Small Fry

I enjoyed reading your comment.

SmallFry
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SmallFry
5 years ago
Reply to  Small Fry

Thanks! ☘️

thetallone
Guest
thetallone
5 years ago
Reply to  Small Fry

Yes, I think you are right. State could have outlawed large grows and (sorry) indoor from the start, and maybe the mom and pops would have had a chance. Lobbyists for Harborside et al won, and here we are.

Please Check One
Guest
Please Check One
5 years ago

“Everybody, grow less weed!” Good luck with that. People don’t seem to learn from history. During WWI tremendous amounts of native grassland in the Great Plains were turned over to wheat production, in what has been called the “Great Plow-up”. Prices boomed. Then the war ended and there was a surplus. So what did the farmers do? Plowed up even more grassland and planted more, to compensate for the lowered prices. Then came the Great Depression. Naturally prices dropped even more and eventually many farmers were foreclosed on or just simply fled their land and homes, to become part of a mass migration west, the Grapes of Wrath scenario. Those who remained had to contend with crushing poverty, drought and the great dust storms caused by the plowing up of the grasslands, which defy description. Planting more to compensate for lower prices is a proven recipe for mass economic and environmental suicide. It’s pretty much a no-brainer – you can’t fix a surplus by creating a bigger surplus. And yet if my eyes aren’t deceiving me, that appears to be what’s happening all around us.

Squeeler
Guest
Squeeler
5 years ago

the market is already flipped on its head with black market prices higher than rec prices.

local yocal
Guest
local yocal
5 years ago

need to cap the numbers pf permits or were all going to go out of business .I think thats the big plan anyway ,so big corps can take it over.

Littlefish
Guest
Littlefish
5 years ago
Reply to  local yocal

Or, grow some turnips!

Anon
Guest
Anon
5 years ago

..”could crash the market..”

Nothing like stating the obvious I lol’ed at that ,

And ..”says sac … ” Hehehe so many sacs

Why did they lift the cap on farm size that was promised for first 5yrs? That was a dirty double crossing thing to do.. and the effed up cult fees are so steep farmers HAVE to grow balls to the wall to hopefully at least make their nut .
Pretty obvious to me they expect players who will last until this balances out, to be able to operate at steep losses for the next 5 years.. byebye life savings, hello anxiety .

Living the lie
Guest
Living the lie
5 years ago
Reply to  Anon

Spot on

Thin Air Designs
Guest
Thin Air Designs
5 years ago

Certainly prices in the legal market will recede over time as production methods improve. The “data” from the referenced article however is based on easily seen to be faulty assumptions. Large numbers of these temp licenses have never, nor will ever grow product. Thousands of these licenses have been handed out to entities applying for them merely so they can hope to raise the required money (at best), or to fleece investors (as worst).

T
Guest
T
5 years ago

Some are selling product at $300-$600 per and doing just fine. They don’t drive a newer F-950 all jacked up 2wd growdozer like most of the green rush foolios. They don’t wear shirts and hats emblazoned with dope leaves all over them like those morons from socal. And they aren’t going to argue with you in the street about how much more stoned they are on their dope than yours. But, they are out there in mass, and perfectly content with $300-$600 per so enjoy your 2k while you can buddy, your connect can only remain ignorant for so long. Production in Humboldt is also more expensive than most areas in California and other areas have been catching up, some surpassing.

Thin Air Designs
Guest
Thin Air Designs
5 years ago
Reply to  T

LOL. Ignorance much?

You might want to consider that perhaps I’m one of those you describe who isn’t growing in Humboldt (because of its expense), don’t own a single piece of leafed clothing. Have never once argued about the degrees of stoneage. Don’t own a growdozer and executes a business model that will work just fine at the prices you describe.

An alternative to the path of ignorant assumptions you have chosen would be to research the license database and realize what I said was true … but no.

Max Stover
Guest
5 years ago
Reply to  T

At 3 to 6 sounds like you are content to work for minimum wage. Have you seen the drop in quality with the drop in value as farmers try to survive by producing more. I have. Top quality requires more love, attention to detail. Very hard to find the help that understands what it takes to produce high quality cannabis. The love is missing, you can see it, you can taste it, you can feel it. what

Bill
Guest
Bill
5 years ago

If only this will lead to less impacts in the hills, that would be a great result, but unfortunately like many posts have pointed out, could just lead to more growers growing more weed. We shall see, personally, I think it would be great to see these mega growers running away from the hills with their tails between their legs.

Also, lets make one thing clear these pukes are not farmers!! they are growers, always will be growers, they could not farm a crop if their lives depended on it. Between the grow dozers, the attitudes, the lack of educated application of herbicides, fertilizers, etc. and the destruction of creeks/springs, blown up meadows for greenhouses/grow pads, on and on……Not Farmers. They do not care about the land which they seek their millions from.

T
Guest
T
5 years ago
Reply to  Bill

There is most certainly that element as well but there are also farmers, stuards of the land whom grow weed as well. Regular farming doesn’t exactly pay the bills, unless mommy and daddy handed it to you.

Matthew Meyer
Guest
Matthew Meyer
5 years ago

There’s a pretty lengthy list of food crops for which California supplies 90% or better of US production. Some, like walnuts, go as high as 99%.

I don’t feel confident saying that CA produces 90% of American cannabis, but many estimates in the past have ranged from 2/3 to 3/4 or even higher.

California’s elected representatives have been far too slow to acknowledge the foreseeable negative consequences of enacting a legalization scheme that depends on the fiction of keeping all the produce in-state.

As difficult as it may be to lobby the federal government to allow interstate commerce in cannabis, it was the only responsible path to take. Now we get to live with the consequences of not having done so. I don’t think anyone knows how long the present untenable situation will continue, nor how bad it might get before it gets better. What’s crystal clear is that we’re gearing up to continue a war on weed to try to make up for the bad policy decisions we’ve made.

WillSmith
Guest
WillSmith
5 years ago
Reply to  Matthew Meyer

The feds will not legalize interstate commerce or legalize in general due to tax code 280. They make too much money from it being illegal federally. It’s going to be atleast another 5-10 years most likely. As more states back east gear up for legalization such as NJ, NY, PA ect…. it will set the demand on fire for cheaper untaxed products grown in the PNW. Right now distillate carts and jul pens are what everyone is smoking and the carts sell wholesale over there in the tens of thousands for 18-20 bucks a pop. When these states legalize there will be a period of time where they are developing production and infastructure and for years will not have the millions of pounds of trim to produce the thousands of liters of distillate to make carts. Also the climate is shit for commercial outdoor and greenhouse most of the products will be produced with a giant carbon footprint and massive overhead due to a very wet humid climate with 80% RH most of the time. Itll all be indoor and insulated glasshouse with supplmental light, modine heaters, huge dehums, concrete radiant heat flooring ect.. Point is production will be expensive. Add in massive taxes like NJ’s $42 an ounce tax on flower and the fact that the licenses will be handed to a few big corps like in canada and you create an amazing underground market for affordable sun grown organic cannabis from the PNW aswell as cheap liters of distillate made from affordable untaxed trim grown outdoor will little overhead. Also you have huge pharma corps that lobby the feds to keep it illegal as it threatens a huge portion of their market.

Farce
Guest
Farce
5 years ago

… “increasingly difficult to offload excess product through the black market as the state’s track and trace program becomes more functional.”…Does anybody really believe this?! The state’s constant fantasy-and-denial game they play as they pretend about their wonderful track-n-trace is a farce for those of us who follow their bullshit. Perhaps it was always intended to be disfunctional? Perhaps it has been intentionally designed to fail, so CA mega-farms can unload to the Original Market? It’s starting to look that way as we head into another year where mega-farms are permitted and protected by government agencies and then dump their product on to the interstate distribution system. Words that come to mind…scandal, corruption, deceit, willful misleading of the public, conspiracy, federal racketeering, RICO….

hmm
Guest
hmm
5 years ago

They fucked us and themselves when they took away the cap on farm size.

Farce
Guest
Farce
5 years ago
Reply to  hmm

Oh! But Hezekiah Allen and others assured us they wouldn’t do that! I was sooo surprised…

Please Check One
Guest
Please Check One
5 years ago

Spot on, Farce. The list of unpleasant nouns at the end of your comment nicely describe California’s state and, to a lesser extent, local government. Let’s not forget bribery and her ugly cousin, nepotism. I continue to be surprised at people’s surprise that this marriage doesn’t look like it can be saved. Does anyone still believe the state put legalization on the ballot for YOUR benefit? Really?
Your faith is touching.

Perspective
Guest
Perspective
5 years ago

I was hoping this was the year of the purge, but with no annual licenses or ANY track and trace in place, its another year of these fledgling, [edit] farms to continue without any worries. As soon as t&t goes into place, some of these neighborhoods will get back to normal. A note to all of the [edit] ass beer guzzling pot growers, your days are numbered, so you better make it happen. May the good farms rise to the top and the rest of you get flushed down the toilet, where you belong. Thanks Humboldt for not protecting the neighbors of these semi-legal pot farms.

Rod Gass
Guest
Rod Gass
5 years ago

I find it rather humorous to read where so many folks equate the #64 style of legalization as being something positive, then force the equal and opposite reaction of the honest market to be dishonest. 80 plus years of discussion gets to be conveniently ignored or blackwashed.

The legal market is crooked due to it being in league with state government. Does anyone recall the old axiom “We’re the government, we’re here to help.”

Ullr Rover
Guest
Ullr Rover
5 years ago

I hear tulips are the next big thing.

Geek Grrrl
Guest
Geek Grrrl
5 years ago

9,000,000 lbs of marijuana divided by 1,142 acres of farms equals 7,880 lbs per acre of marijuana. Does this sound realistic to you all out there? Are people really growing nearly 8,000 pounds of weed per acre on permitted farms? Wow.

Joe dirt
Guest
Joe dirt
5 years ago
Reply to  Kym Kemp

New Market spring up called The Grey Market a couple ways this is happening when the White Market runs dry Black Market herb comes into play and when fake dispensaries open up for short periods of time under the guise of white market capitalism only two hire people that don’t know that they are not legit to sell their herb on the commercial storefront in a city near you and when people could get a good deal in the white Market has been known to sell two people who resale in the black market and there must be 50 bdifferent ways just hop on the bus Gus and set yourself free free up the herb turd and listen to me they’re stealing our rights Mike we got to stand up bub just drop off the keylo lee and set yourself free

The Real Brian
Guest
The Real Brian
5 years ago
Reply to  Geek Grrrl

Theres no possibility that ever acre will make that much production.

Maybe everyone is fudging on their production predictions on permits, I don’t know.

I think it was good of you notice and do a little math. Those numbers are wrong.

Think about it
Guest
Think about it
5 years ago

1500 5×5 5 lbers on one acre is 7500 lbs one crop.

Conservatism Is Corruption 🐘💰👈🏼🇷🇺
Guest
Conservatism Is Corruption 🐘💰👈🏼🇷🇺
5 years ago

If they want you to grow less weed, start a professional lobbying organization (like corn farmers 🌽, etc.) that hands out checks to politicians while it demands the government mail out checks to marijuana farmers for growing less or not growing at all. If that deal politically has been acceptable for farmers in the Midwest, etc., then why shouldn’t CA marijuana farmers get the same deal from the government?

#EggBoy 🥚

Mendocino Mamma
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Mendocino Mamma
5 years ago

DUH!

Best Time Ever
Guest
Best Time Ever
5 years ago

Life is Good – Business is Great – The Herb is Delicious – Let the Good Times Roll On!!!

burblestein
Guest
5 years ago

Mendocino County has managed to lose $2.4 million dollars so far as the cost of administering their weed program. Rumblings along the grapevine are that the deficit is being made up out of the road repair funds.

Bub-N-Bob
Guest
Bub-N-Bob
5 years ago

I just love the comments on these articles! The frothing is so hilarious.