Licensed Growers Could See an Upswing in the Market on July 1, Suggests Article

$100 money buds

[Photo by Kym Kemp]

On Friday, the California State University News Interviewed experts in their University system about “the effects of [cannabis] legalization on the state and what changes we might expect.” Of course, that included staff from the Humboldt Institute for Interdisciplinary Marijuana Research (HIIMR). Founded in 2012, it is the first accredited US research institute dedicated solely to learning about cannabis issues.

The article offers some interesting insights from others including an especially pertinent one for growers in this area from Kenji Klein, Ph.D., assistant professor of management at CSU Long Beach, who states,

lack of licensed growers could lead to a supply shock by July 1, 2018, when all cannabis sold in California must be from a licensed grower, says Dr. Klein.

“Licensed businesses can only work with other licensed businesses, and there is some fear among product manufacturers and retailers that they will not be able to find licensed growers to buy cannabis from,” Klein says, adding that he’s heard this concern from many SoCal cannabis businesses.

Later in the article, Klein adds, “”Everyone believes regulated legal cannabis is inevitable here in California, and the industry is evolving very fast. Now is the chance to get in, and anyone who hesitates will get left behind.”

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79 comments

  • The established dispensaries have all received their state licenses. Not much will change on July 1, except that after July 1 permitted grows must sell to licensed buyers not the black market. The board of equalization and the state IRS will catch you if you do and claim the income as legal.

  • I disagree with Dr. Klien. With only 2000 registered, 250 approved and 10000+ unlicensed grows not registered. It is very doubtful the scenario stated will occur. The current market is flooded with product due to over production. Oregon is also seeing the same issue with $5 a gram prices.

    • 5$ a gram, that’s like 2200 a pound? Not too shabby. Maybe if they went down to 2 dollar grams they wouldn’t have mountains of it piled up. The shops buying it at 700 a pound and turning it around for almost 3 times as much if I read that OR article correctly.

  • Hammer time for unlicensed growers

  • How many out of the 500 licensed grows in Trinity have finished all the paperwork…..not even 1/4th are completed most are pending. Didnt get one of the 500 licenses? To bad. Trinity has an estimated 2500 grows…..

  • Veterans friend

    The new testing will begin in June I believe, and that will ELIMINATE 75% of the “legal” cannabis that will not pass testing. That might bump the price up a bit.
    There is so much ignorance & “pie-in-the-sky” delusion in Humboldt. Y’all are not going to be happy.

    • You are absolutely correct. Going to come down to who grows the best stuff. If the distribution centers don’t want it. You’re going to have to go to the black market. So grow good stuff. TheHumboldtBrand.com

  • What about the person that grows only for his own use?

  • Any existing dispensary is required to be locally permitted, State licensed and selling only products in the track & trace by July 1st. This will increase demand for those farmers who can sell within the regulated market. And therefore, due to the increase in demand, the prices should go up. And newly established dispensing business will continue to come online as they get local approvals. Keep in mind there are still more bands withing municipalities and cities than there are those with ordinances supporting the cannabis industry.

  • groba dude osnt trustafarian

    Anyone who needs Cannabis should grow their own. The incredible mess created by licensing on the one side, and regulations enforced by our corrupt and incompetent government, are turning legal pot into a terrible joke.

    The only answer: buy a clone, grow it at home.

    You will enjoy it SO much more…

  • No, no, buy it from me!!!

  • 5 neighbors plots are empty so far this year in my neck of the woods, it’s quiet, it’s nice. I’m exited It’s becoming remote here again.

  • I don’t agree at all with this phds opinion. Look at what’s happening in the real word. Licensed retail store are still buying black market flower and product because it’s way cheaper. They are already required to only do business with license holders and they are not because there is no enforcement. Nothing will change 7/1 because there is no mechanism to change it. The regulated roll out has been a joke. The architects of prop 64 did not understand the real cannabis industry nor did the politicians and bcc. The black market can adapt quickly with no red tape. The regulated market will take years to come online fully because of their own over taxing and regulating.

    • your wrong, once the dispenserie is in the track and trace system all there products that are for sale must have a track and trace stamp on it. Without this it cannot be sold in the store, therefore dispensaries will not be selling any black market weed at all.

      • Yes, when it goes to track and trace. The state is not track and trace yet and the word is they will not be this year. The July date is hype and not reality.

        • That does seem to be the reality…So the counties have permitted huge grows and will leave them alone knowing full well that their thousands of pounds will be hitting the nationwide underground market. It sure doesn’t seem right! If so then this year- most of all- is the year for underground growers to sit out and take a long vacation. Let others beat themselves up and lose money. This fall harvest is shaping up to be the year of the crash…

          • Exactly. Like we’re did all of Honeydew Farms, and Humboldt standards mite infested weed go from last year. Ummmmmmmm. Hmmmm. #semi #eastcoast

        • There are several local track and trace programs that are already up and running. Humboldt, Mendo, and Yolo county all have their own track and trace programs.

      • Sounds like the mark of the beast system… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ulCw7RJ5eE8

      • What about track n trace in the hills.. growers with no internet or phone line are being allowed to track and trace their own product untill it gets to town. That’s right. They pencil in their paper totals and request stamps..so I only harvested 300 lbs from my licensed acre. I promise…lol…it’s s joke. Of the three folks I know who got that leniency due to no internet phone or service, I talk to them regular all the time while they are out there..lol.. it’s screwed but good for them. Grow 1500 plants or lbs pencil in 500 and ship out the rest. Same ol. Same ol.

  • Pie in the sky “professional” academics are telling us we all better get regulated and licensed! Why am I not surprised? Because that’s what paper-pushers in the university study sessions do- echo the government propaganda. This article is ridiculous and only gives false hope. Ha Ha Ha! Perhaps we will see a bump in prices for underground weed. Once all the huge permitted grows must go track-n-trace. And compete with each other for a limited CA market. By begging the licensed distributors to please buy theirs! AND the county continues sending compliance letters to huge unpermitted grows. There will be a small bump for mom and pop…and then it will disappear forever. I’m hoping that bump lasts a couple years and people can pay off their mortgages, get solid. Once the corps get their politicians to federally “legalize” we are all done for- permitted and unpermitted alike.

    • Re: farce Yes, of all the scenarios I can imagine, this is the most likely. I still think (and have thought the whole time) that the smart ones are not the ones dumping all their savings into the permitting process. I think it’s a dead end… and so far I haven’t seen anything to convince me otherwise! Not even a little bit

      • @emily – obviously you haven’t seen one of these abatement letters either, everyone’s money is gonna be headed to the county’s pocket whether they went legal or not. Better get your property on the market now if you have a grow that’s more then 6 plants on it. Those 10k a day fines I’ve heard are far less friendly then then the extremely excessive permitting process.

    • This “market” could turn out positive. I think I read or heard somewhere that California has(had) one of the worlds largest economy? Pretty sure out of all the “legal” states, Cali has the most money to “spend”. More bigger cities. More populations. More consumption.

      Anyways, stay positive folks.
      Grab tight to the things that matter most to you in life.

      • The problem is people in Cali know how to grow cannabis and it grows well here. Overproduction. Its really simple. Produce more than consumed and you have a saturated market which causes the prices to fall. Unfortunately, not so much for the consumer.

        • Exactly right, simple economics 101, but many in these parts are uneducated and do not understand economic principles. Wiki: law of supply and demand

  • It might not happen immediately but eventually there will be a total overproduction of good weed that passes all the tests (it’s not that hard to do, Big Ag will figure it out, or they will change the tests cause they OWN the regulators). At that point the wholesale price will go below the cost of production, like the guy up in Oregon selling his for $100 a pound. Read the news, in every state that has legalized most small businesses arent surviving. kind of seems like a big gamble at this point. Who knows though, I’m wrong all the time.

  • please stop calling dope growers farmers.

    • People who grow marijuana are farmers. And I’m delighted to call them that.

      • Yes. When they grow on flat ground in the full sun and stop buying potting soil and run farms then they are farmers. Coincidentally this is also when they produce so much weed that they destroy the market. So…the farmers who are well-funded and able to use industrial methods of production, keep their overhead down by exploiting the farm workers and have a lobbying presence to influence regulations while protecting their own interests will prosper…by destroying and taking the market share of many smaller less-influential producers. I hate the word ‘farmer” used here because it represents all of that. And it also represents the lack of understanding many have of basic economics applied to our community. Corporate industrial farming destroyed the small farmers and their communities throughout rural America. Yet here we are celebrating and encouraging the arrival of the same? “Growers” is a proud word with a proud tradition of resistance to corporate and government control. I use “farmer” as an insult and I direct it to the new people who are too scared to be growers, have a weakness where they need approval from others and don’t comprehend or care that this weakness has delivered the industry to Big Ag. It is a trick of semantics that sets the growers up to be dominated. Like “legalization”…

      • Real farmers don’t buy dirt. Some pot growers farm, but to call them all farmers is an insult to actually sustainable farmers. No outside input. That’s a real farmer. All you asshats calling yourselves farmers couldnt lick the salt in my horse stall or scratch my boar

        • Most ‘real farmers’, as you describe them, buy pesticides and chemical-based products to apply on their crops. Are those the ‘ideal’ producers you mean?
          ‘Farmer’ or ‘Grower’, a person who has a holistic view of crop production (not just about how much money they will make), a person who cares for the land that supports them/us, the insects and the biology therein, utilizing water efficiently, not allowing erosion, and caring about the possible contamination (to the consumer) from their methods, is the real laudable (and “sustainable”) professional!

      • groba dude osnt trustafarian

        It’s amazing how they used to be called growers, but suddenly they are all “farmers” and “business-people”. Semantics don’t change what you are trying to do.

        My opinions don’t really matter here, but I would encourage everyone to explore at least one other method of supporting oneself, going forward.

        Drove up I-5 in January, to Grants Pass, and then out the Redwood Highway, to Crescent City. Beautiful drive, but wow, everyone is building a greenhouse…

        AND, real farmers don’t grow their crops in potting soil with stolen water. At best, I would call you Florists.

        • I agree that “real farmers don’t grow their crops in potting soil with stolen water.” However, legal farmers can’t use stolen water. And many grow in the ground.

          • Yeah true dig a hole mix potting soil in with ammendments, what’s the difference. Update some legal farmers do steal water, hence grape farmers.

      • haha ok kym, do farmers buy bags of soil? do farmers guard their crop with guns and vicious dogs? do farmers lie about what they actually do for a living? do farmers illegally transport their crops across state lines to make more money? do farmers build expensive rooms to grow their crops under expensive energy intensive lighting?

        • I think the fundamental difference in understanding we have is:

          Not everyone who plants marijuana is the same. I could show you marijuana farmers who do no-till permaculture farming. And, of course, we have all seen the horrendous environmental damage from people who just try to make money without caring about their land.

          • To add my 3 cents; how come the Southern Humboldt Community Park Farm is using bagged soil in the Community Farm now? They store these bagges of soil in the Community Park barn and you can see the empty bags and hill of soil (from Kimtu Rd) being using throughout the Community Farm. I have never seen this practice use before for row crops or vegetable crops before at the Park. So much for being organic or dry farming…

            • Those totes cold be amendments, not soil.

              • What’s the difference between “amendments, not soil”, given the fact they are using them in prime ag soils and flood plain.

              • Why are they adding soil amendments to prime ag soils/farmland that is registered with the CDFA Organic Program? For example; what are the ingredients of these soil amendments? Its being used in the Community Park Farm and marketed as organic, don’t people have the right to know what’s in their food they buy and eat?

                • most farmers ammend their soil. even prime ag soil. there are minerals that are not naturally present that are required for optimal crop production. Serious farmers test their soil regularly and ammend accordingly.

                • Thank you and I agree. However, that’s a serious amount of amendments for only 3.30 acres of crops, according to the Community Park Organic Registration. How does the public know what’s in all those one yard soil amendment totes and if they are certified organic, registered organic or even from the local growing region?

                  https://drive.google.com/open?id=1-OEP5zNHR-Whfps6XL5IKXVWycwWSADm

    • Please stop being a discriminatory bigot, Cannabis farmers are farmers. Why be such a bigot?

  • These friendly grow bros are estimating a big upswing in the market too in the coming months.

    http://humboldtmarijuanaexchange.com

  • dswingin djangleberry

    been to washington lately? top shelf mid size 80-100/oz ,thats RETAIL bruh so do the math
    besides there more going on in humboldt alone then in WA,..
    hopin and wishin isnt exactly reality. high times called it 6 years ago @500 per elbow the old rancher even knew that!

  • Veterans friend

    Legally, one will not be allowed to grow unless the grower has a bona fide relationship with a dispensary. Why do people not understand this?

    • Couple that with the fact the county has to only mail out an abatement of nuisance order now to Levy a $30,000 fine against you with potential $10,000 a day fines if you do not come in compliance. If anybody has received one of these abatement notices do not roll over, get a lawyer and fight them. What they’re doing is completely illegal.

      • Fourteen new abatement notices in current Times Standard classifieds. County BOS also approved funding for regularly updated high res satellite images. The satellite images allow identification of growing cannabis by its spectral signature.

    • NOT TRUE, many farmers are growing on concentrate manufacturers, no dispensary or brand required, just raw terps

  • All one has to do to see the dramatic impact these regulations, taxes and the overproduction of marijuana have already made, is to drive through Garberville. This time last year it was bumper-to-bumper traffic, you couldn’t get into any of the “Feed & garden” stores. Now even on a Monday it looks like it did back in the mid-90s before 215 brought the green rushers. I think it’s good and bad, it’s nice to see Town back the way it was before we were invaded by everybody in the entire country trying to make a quick buck. However as a person who has built houses around here for over 20 years, I know a large portion of my clients were people that grew pot. “Real jobs” are going to start shrinking and going away fast without people with disposable income to employees said “real jobs” talking to people at Redway feed and daizy’ s I was told that business is down around 50% already. As people who are used to making Fast Money in large amount start running out of their stashes, don’t count on them to be paying a 60 plus percent markups at the local clothing, toy and grocery stores, and with less and less people growing don’t count on there being a need for what 10? “farm and garden” stores. I just hope Nilsen’s makes it through, it’s nice to have an actual farm and garden store that hasn’t Jack their prices and where I can actually get food for my farm animals because they actually keep that stuff in stock and not just dirt and fertilizer.

  • Just a quick response to the many people who commented on what I said in this article.
    I agree with much of what you are saying. What I told the reporter is that a lot of the manufacturers and retailers I talk to down here in SoCal are afraid they will run out of supply from licensed growers, and then they will have to face a choice between staying legal and running out of product or buying from the black market and risking their permits. My focus was what the people down here are worried about. How this will actually play out come July 1 is anyone’s guess. It will depend on all the things you mention in your response to me. How many growers will get licensed? How much cannabis will licensed growers be able to grow? Will SoCal businesses risk going to the underground market if they run out of supply? How strict will state enforcement be come July 1? All of this is still up in the air, and we don’t know how it will play out. I’m definitely not offering an opinion about what growers in your part of the state should do. I can’t even imagine all the factors you need to consider in deciding how to play this. But if any of you wants to give me their take on things, I would love to talk with you.

  • Timothy McVeigh's ghost

    If your a California resident and are paying out $$$ for weed, your doing it wrong

  • Still Discrimination

    Humboldt has 4 and $500 organically grown pounds of excellent outdoor buds available all day long, these University fools and the State Cannabis Authorities want farmers to believe the price is going up so they will sign up and sign away their farms…. but this is pure bs, they really want you in their program so they can deny your application and permanenetly close your farm. Dont fall for the State lies and Hype…….. Black is back…. it never left!!

    Meanwhile in Eureka real criminals sell Meth and Heroin on every street corner. A house is getting burglarized, 5 cars were stolen. Mentally Ill patients walk around the streets aimlessly with knives and guns, children are being robbed of their lunch money. THE illegal Sex Trafficking continues at the cheap bed bug infested Motels, gangs run the West and East Side of town, and MS 13, Surenos, Northerners and Mexican Mafia run the states largest heroine ring in Fortuna. But hey, go get the pot growers!
    I sure am glad they are busting the cannabis farms, It really makes me put faith in the Humboldt County Sheriff’s Office. I feel a lot safer knowing this Cannabis isn’t growing and destroying the community. What a joke, they have zero priorities, except the priorities of assets forfeiture and filling the deputies pockets with crisp $100 bills, shhhhh don’t tell anybody or they just might show up at your house shoot you and plant a gun on your corpse claiming “the suspect pointed the weapon at me so I had to stop him” They don’t call it shooting any more they call it “stopping the suspect”….. then their “Deputy Coroner” will show up at the mortuary to “examine the body” and claim “yup, everything the deputies say is true”, after all the Coroner is a member of the Deputy Sheriff”s Association, all part of the old ” i’ll scrub your back if you scrub mine

    • Killingismybusiness

      Going after gangs,pimps and drug pushers has no money in it for LE. Mega rich dope growers and the billions they make with out paying taxes is where it’s at

  • I’m curious what people think is the price at which they can’t even save enough to keep going till next year. Growing a marketable 2 lb plant and getting it to a buyer must cost 500 bucks if you include minimum wage and all costs from food, gas, maintenance, soil, fert, beer, socks… So if you can produce a lb for $250 and only get 700 or so you might stack up $550 a lb. Just an example but so many variables. Is that still enough to keep trying? Is $400? You need a chunk for next year’s start up, gotta keep up machines, land, etc and licence fees now too. At what price per pound is nope? I’m just curious. Everyone is different but I imagine below 700 bucks a pound it might not work even living simple. Has anyone worked out what is the breaking point? It’s not a fun thought but corn, wheat, bean farmers in the Midwest have exact figures.

  • ……back to college for me, a “real” job, lots less stress. Throwing in the towel boys n girls. Good luck out there 😉. the thousands of people who invested hundreds of thousands of dollars on a total crap shoot in a unknowing and unstable market that could very well crash or become illegal all over again in the next three years are inept. Invest other places!

  • MustyDreadBush

    Most of the crops will go to mold and pests this year
    On the books anyway. Them russet mites are to blame.
    Baaam

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