Weather Warning!

Checking the Water

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The weather for the next two to three weeks has the potential to be very very bad.  I’m going to reprint a letter that was forwarded to me that originated withChris Haile, the battalion chief of Battalion 1, Cal Fire in Butte County. I highly recommend you read it and plan accordingly. If you read nothing else, check out the part I italicized and put in red.

While the National Weather Service isn’t discussing the pending storms like this, the science community is viewing the possibilities as noted below.  We called Calfire and the State Emergency Services folks to confirm the validity of the weather projections, and they said the state is taking this projection very seriously.  So I thought it best to share with all of you so you can be prepared.   Take a look at the east pacific satelite photos, today these storms are tapping into east to west equatorial jet streams that are very wet, and this is very unusual.  Every one should stock up just to be safe in case a rain on snow event actually occurs.

Currently, the strong El Nino is reaching its peak in the Eastern Pacific, and now finally appears to be exerting an influence on our weather. The strong jet has been apparent for quite some time out over the open water, but the persistent block had prevented it from reaching the coast. Now that the block has dissolved completely, a 200+ kt jet is barreling towards us. Multiple large and powerful storm systems are expected to slam into CA from the west and northwest over the coming two weeks, all riding this extremely powerful jet stream directly into the state. The jet will itself provide tremendous dynamic lift, in addition to directing numerous disturbances right at the state and supplying them with an ample oceanic moisture source. The jet will be at quite a low latitude over much of the Pacific, so these storms will be quite cold, at least initially. Very heavy rainfall and strong to potentially very strong winds will impact the lower elevations beginning late Sunday and continuing through at least the following Sunday. This will be the case for the entire state, from (and south of) the Mexican border all the way up to Oregon. Above 3000-4000 feet, precipitation will be all snow, and since temperatures will be unusually cold for a precipitation event of this magnitude, a truly prodigious amount of snowfall is likely to occur in the mountains, possibly measured in the tens of feet in the Sierra after it’s all said and done. But there’s a big and rather threatening caveat to that (discussed below).Individual storm events are going to be hard to time for at least few more days, since this jet is just about as powerful as they come (on this planet, anyway). Between this Sunday and the following Sunday, I expect categorical statewide rainfall totals in excess of 3-4 inches. That is likely to be a huge underestimate for most areas. Much of NorCal is likely to see 5-10 inches in the lowlands, with 10-20 inches in orographically-favored areas. Most of SoCal will see 3-6 inches at lower elevations, with perhaps triple that amount in favored areas.

This is where things get even more interesting, though. The models are virtually unanimous in “reloading” the powerful jet stream and forming an additional persistent kink 2000-3000 miles to our southwest after next Sunday. This is a truly ominous pattern, because it implies the potential for a strong Pineapple-type connection to develop. Indeed, the 12z GFS now shows copious warm rains falling between days 12 and 16 across the entire state. Normally, such as scenario out beyond day seven would be dubious at best. Since the models are in such truly remarkable agreement, however, and because of the extremely high potential impact of such an event, it’s worth mentioning now. Since there will be a massive volume of freshly-fallen snow (even at relatively low elevations between 3000-5000 feet), even a moderately warm storm event would cause very serious flooding. This situation will have to monitored closely. Even if the tropical connection does not develop, expected rains in the coming 7-10 days will likely be sufficient to cause flooding in and of themselves (even in spite of dry antecedent conditions).

In addition to very heavy precipitation, powerful winds may result from very steep pressure gradients associated with the large and deep low pressure centers expect ed to begin approaching the coast by early next week. Though it’s not clear at the moment just how powerful these winds may be, there is certainly the potential for a widespread damaging wind event at some point, and the high Sierra peaks are likely to see gusts in the 100-200 mph range (since the 200kt jet at 200-300 mb will essentially run directly into the mountains at some point). The details of this will have to be hashed out as the event(s) draw closer.

In short, the next 2-3 weeks (at least) are likely to be more active across California than any other 2-3 week period in recent memory. The potential exists for a dangerous flood scenario to arise at some point during this interval, especially with the possibility of a heavy rain-on-snow event during late week 2. In some parts of Southern California, a whole season’s worth of rain could fall over the course of 5-10 days. This is likely to be a rather memorable event. Stay tuned.
Chris Haile
Battalion Chief, Battalion 1
Cal Fire / Butte County Fire/Rescue

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38 Comments
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nursemyra
Guest
14 years ago

wow – pretty strong warning. hope you and your family stay safe

Ernie's Place
Guest
14 years ago

Stand back non-believers, I believe we’re gonna’ get some rain. If it floods we can always blame the loggers.

Ernie's Place
Guest
14 years ago

Stand back non-believers, I believe we’re gonna’ get some rain. If it floods we can always blame the loggers.

Tongan Cheek
Guest
Tongan Cheek
14 years ago
Reply to  Ernie's Place

Nah, the loggers are still in denial about how much of the damage from ’64 was from their greed-cycle, which has come and gone. What we can blame the loggers for is raping the land to where it had no value and hippies and their grows and their indoor blogs could afford to move in. Loggers caused the hippie infestation. Cause and effect. Sorry bub.

beachcomber
Guest
14 years ago

All right….who made another deal with the devil? Who, I say? I love a good storm but this sounds pretty ominous.

Edmund Metheny
Guest
Edmund Metheny
14 years ago
Reply to  beachcomber

I’m pretty sure it was Pat Robertson.

beachcomber
Guest
14 years ago

All right….who made another deal with the devil? Who, I say? I love a good storm but this sounds pretty ominous.

Edmund Metheny
Guest
Edmund Metheny
14 years ago
Reply to  beachcomber

I’m pretty sure it was Pat Robertson.

Staff
Member
14 years ago

Pat Robertson would say the county has made a pot pact with the devil.

Staff
Member
14 years ago

Pat Robertson would say the county has made a pot pact with the devil.

Chris
Guest
Chris
14 years ago

Hang in there Humboldt; I will be sending good vibes your way; these types of storms are no joke get prepared see http://tinyurl.com/yzz7xld

Chris
Guest
Chris
14 years ago

Hang in there Humboldt; I will be sending good vibes your way; these types of storms are no joke get prepared see http://tinyurl.com/yzz7xld

Metaphorically Challenged
Guest
Metaphorically Challenged
14 years ago

“This is the time of year when it should be raining like a tall cow,” said Mike Pechner, a meteorologist who owns Golden West Meteorology.”

A tall cow?

Staff
Member
14 years ago

I believe the full phrase is ‘raining like a tall cow pissing on a flat rock.’ Perhaps the fact that the 2nd half contained the word pissing caused him to truncate the saying in order to maintain professional standards. ;>

Mooving Metaphor
Guest
Mooving Metaphor
14 years ago
Reply to  Staff

Thanks for elucidating Kym, I double posted because I didn’t see my comment up for consderation…you can delete the second post and this if you want!

Metaphorically Challenged
Guest
Metaphorically Challenged
14 years ago

“This is the time of year when it should be raining like a tall cow,” said Mike Pechner, a meteorologist who owns Golden West Meteorology.”

A tall cow?

Staff
Member
14 years ago

I believe the full phrase is ‘raining like a tall cow pissing on a flat rock.’ Perhaps the fact that the 2nd half contained the word pissing caused him to truncate the saying in order to maintain professional standards. ;>

Mooving Metaphor
Guest
Mooving Metaphor
14 years ago
Reply to  Staff

Thanks for elucidating Kym, I double posted because I didn’t see my comment up for consderation…you can delete the second post and this if you want!

e.
Guest
e.
14 years ago

Yep, everything I’ve checked/read is saying the same thing; next few weeks are going to be very, very nasty. Makes me wish I worked from home, as the commute back and forth to Ukiah is going to be an absolute nightmare.

e.
Guest
e.
14 years ago

Yep, everything I’ve checked/read is saying the same thing; next few weeks are going to be very, very nasty. Makes me wish I worked from home, as the commute back and forth to Ukiah is going to be an absolute nightmare.

trackback

[…] frankly, the drive has gotten old. However, I just finished reading something on my friend Kym’s blog that disheartens me even more. I also found a copy of this on Bakersfield.com. Take a […]

trackback

[…] frankly, the drive has gotten old. However, I just finished reading something on my friend Kym’s blog that disheartens me even more. I also found a copy of this on Bakersfield.com. Take a […]

trackback

[…] Redheaded Ninja has a weather warning, In short, the next 2-3 weeks (at least) are likely to be more active across California than any other 2-3 week period in recent memory. The potential exists for a dangerous flood scenario to arise at some point during this interval, especially with the possibility of a heavy rain-on-snow event during late week 2. In some parts of Southern California, a whole season’s worth of rain could fall over the course of 5-10 days. This is likely to be a rather memorable event. Stay tuned. Chris Haile Battalion Chief, Battalion 1 Cal Fire / Butte County Fire/Rescue […]

trackback

[…] Redheaded Ninja has a weather warning, In short, the next 2-3 weeks (at least) are likely to be more active across California than any other 2-3 week period in recent memory. The potential exists for a dangerous flood scenario to arise at some point during this interval, especially with the possibility of a heavy rain-on-snow event during late week 2. In some parts of Southern California, a whole season’s worth of rain could fall over the course of 5-10 days. This is likely to be a rather memorable event. Stay tuned. Chris Haile Battalion Chief, Battalion 1 Cal Fire / Butte County Fire/Rescue […]

MJEAN
Guest
MJEAN
14 years ago

Doesn’t sound like good weather to be traveling to San Francisco. Travel safely!!

Staff
Member
14 years ago
Reply to  MJEAN

I’m a little worried to tell the truth but Robin is staying here to keep an eye on the homefront so at least that will be well.

MJEAN
Guest
MJEAN
14 years ago

Doesn’t sound like good weather to be traveling to San Francisco. Travel safely!!

Staff
Member
14 years ago
Reply to  MJEAN

I’m a little worried to tell the truth but Robin is staying here to keep an eye on the homefront so at least that will be well.

Ben
Guest
Ben
14 years ago

Heraldo uses a web site called weatherwest.com . Pretty good info.

Ben
Guest
Ben
14 years ago

Heraldo uses a web site called weatherwest.com . Pretty good info.

trackback

[…] had a drought. We’ve been dry. But JEEZ!!! You certainly are making up for it. What with the weather forecast being pretty ugly and our latest earthquake, I’m wondering what you have in store for us this winter season! […]

trackback

[…] had a drought. We’ve been dry. But JEEZ!!! You certainly are making up for it. What with the weather forecast being pretty ugly and our latest earthquake, I’m wondering what you have in store for us this winter season! […]

humboldtkids
Guest
humboldtkids
14 years ago

Fiance here:

After a serious draught in North Texas, we saw this on a church sign after the floods started……”If you pray for rain, don’t bitch about the mud.” I thought it was funny and remembered it when I started hearing about the weather predictions up there.

humboldtkids
Guest
humboldtkids
14 years ago

Fiance here:

After a serious draught in North Texas, we saw this on a church sign after the floods started……”If you pray for rain, don’t bitch about the mud.” I thought it was funny and remembered it when I started hearing about the weather predictions up there.

Rob
Guest
Rob
14 years ago

I just found the number to Cal Fire, and was told the weather email that Chief Haile sent out doesn’t really jive with the details in this viral email (I received it too). The woman I spoke to said that Chief Haile sent out an email about the coming week’s weather, but that email was sent out over a week ago. This is a different time frame than the 2-3 weeks listed in this email, so to me, that makes me wonder if the original email was embellished to create additional fear about the bad weather.

Staff
Member
14 years ago
Reply to  Rob

Rob, I’ve been doing some research on it also and I found it under someone else’s name in So. Calif. which definitely made me question it. On the other hand, the weather channels have been full of doom and gloom, too, in similar fashion.

Rob
Guest
Rob
14 years ago

I just found the number to Cal Fire, and was told the weather email that Chief Haile sent out doesn’t really jive with the details in this viral email (I received it too). The woman I spoke to said that Chief Haile sent out an email about the coming week’s weather, but that email was sent out over a week ago. This is a different time frame than the 2-3 weeks listed in this email, so to me, that makes me wonder if the original email was embellished to create additional fear about the bad weather.

Staff
Member
14 years ago
Reply to  Rob

Rob, I’ve been doing some research on it also and I found it under someone else’s name in So. Calif. which definitely made me question it. On the other hand, the weather channels have been full of doom and gloom, too, in similar fashion.